College Football Pick of the Week – Week 19

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-01-01

For our final College Pick of the Week of the season we’ll take a look at the BCS Championship game between Alabama and Clemson, where the Crimson Tide is favored by 6 and the total on the game has dropped a little bit to 59.5 after opening at 61.5.

No surprise to see these teams battling it out for the national title, as they were the two best teams in college football this season and pretty comparable when you look at the stats.

The Tigers come into this one averaging 44.3 points per game against teams who allowed 29.4 points. Clemson ran the ball for 256 yards per game, averaging 6.7 per carry against teams who allow 4.6 yards per carry and the Tigers were probably even better throwing the ball, averaging 273.8 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt, while completing 64.5% of the passes against teams who allowed 59.2% completions.

On defense, the Tigers held foes to 12.9 points a game, which is 17 points fewer than they averaged. Clemson allowed just 2.4 yards per rush to teams who averaged 4.4 yards and were also quite a bit better than average against the pass.

The Tide were more of a throwing team this season and they gained an impressive 11.3 yards per pass attempt this season against teams who allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, while completing 69.4% of their passes. Alabama did run the ball pretty well too, averaging 5.3 yards per carry against teams who allowed 4.5 yards per rush, while carrying the ball 38 times a game and throwing 29 times per contest.

Alabama held foes to 14.5 fewer points than they averaged and 1.4 fewer yards per rush than they averaged, while the Tide was just as solid against the pass.

Naturally, Alabama played a tougher schedule than Clemson, but it wasn’t a huge difference, as the Tigers played the No. 41 schedule according to Jeff Sagarin, while the Tide played No. 22.

Alabama took care of the Tigers in last year’s playoffs, disposing of the Tigers 24-6 as 3-point favorites, but that was a little bit of a different Alabama team, as evidenced by the total last year being just 46.5. While this year’s Alabama team is better offensively, they aren’t quite as dominant on the defensive side and they might be the second best defense on the field in this one.

This is a game that could easily go either way, so will have to grab the points in this one and take the Tigers and hope we see a decent game.

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