Last Updated: 2018-12-06
We’re 8-6 with our College System Play of the Week and for this one we’ll get a little more traditional and look at the game between Army and Navy. Army is favored by 7 and the total has dropped from 44 to 40 with 62% of the wagers coming on the under. The series has been dominated by the under in recent years, but any value has long since bet away by those taking the under.
This has been a huge disappointing season for Navy, who enter this game with just three wins on the season, although they have covered four of their last five games after starting the season 1-6 against the number. Those five games included matchups with undefeated Central Florida and Notre Dame, so the Midshipmen did play some decent teams during the year.
Army did take Oklahoma to overtime, but other than than that, didn’t really play anybody who really stands out.
Up until the past few years Navy had dominated the series, but the Cadets won the last two games as small underdogs and the dogs have dominated the recent series, going 7-2 ATS dating back to 2009. The reason for that is pretty simple, as the teams know each other quite well and run similar offenses, taking away the one big advantage each team has when facing a foe who has just one week to prepare for the option. Having an extra week to get ready for this game is an added bonus, as teams have the opportunity to play for small variations or little wrinkles the opposition may put in.
Army needs a win to capture the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, having already defeated Air Force, while the Falcons thumped Navy. While the Midshipmen may not make it a bowl game, forging a three-way tie for the trophy would be the next best thing, and a 4-9 season that includes a win over Army is a lot better than a 3-10 season.
This is a rivalry game, so Army will be focused, but also do have a little bit of a look-ahead, as they need to start preparing for its bowl game against Houston.
The movement in the total tells you that points are expected to be at a premium and underdogs of at least 7 points with a total of 40 or less have gone 78-58-6 (57.4%) over the years, so will go ahead and side with Navy plus the points in this one.
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