College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 7
- Updated: October 11, 2013
When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 7. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of games this year that have gone to overtime and still managed to sneak ‘under’ the ‘total’. What’s amazing is that four games that were ‘under’ games were pushed past the number already this year thanks to the overtime rules, but none have been salvaged. It’s not a huge handicapping tool, but it’s something to remember for sure when you’re looking at betting a ‘total’ in a game that could conceivably be close.
1 – The number of teams in the SEC that are undefeated outside of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Can you believe that? The almighty SEC was supposed to just roll right through team after team, but in the end, there are a lot of one and two loss teams that are out there. The team that is unbeaten was one of the worst in the conference last year, too. The Missouri Tigers have that distinction, and yet they are going on the road as eight-point underdogs against the Georgia Bulldogs, whom you probably would have guessed would be one of those undefeated teams at this point in the season. The ACC has one more undefeated team than the SEC does, and yet this conference is getting no respect… And once Missouri drops on Saturday, we’re wondering where that is going to leave the rest of America.
1 – The number of teams that enter Week 7 with bowl eligibility already wrapped up. Of course, there are going to be a heck of a lot more as we go on, but the Ohio State Buckeyes are the only team to have played in all six weeks of the season and to have won all six games. The Bucks haven’t played the easiest schedule in the world either, as they have had to go on the road twice against the Northwestern Wildcats and the Cal Golden Bears, and they fended off the Wisconsin Badgers at the Horseshoe as well. Unfortunately for the rest of the nation, these Buckeyes really don’t face much in the way of competition the rest of the year, and there certainly isn’t a game that should trip them up until at least that game against the Michigan Wolverines at the Big House.
1 – The number of teams that are 5-0 ATS this season. The Oregon Ducks are only of the four teams in the land that are undefeated and untied from an ATS standpoint, but they are the only one to have done so and played five games. There’s a reason that they are -13.5 on the road against a Washington Huskies team that ended the National Championship hopes and dreams for the Stanford Cardinal last season. The U of O is legit even though Chip Kelly is no longer here.
3 – The number of teams that don’t have a single cover yet on the season. It’s impressive to think that that number is only three at this point, but what’s not so impressive about it is the fact that all of these are notable teams. The Cal Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS, and they are taking on a 4-0 ATS team in the UCLA Bruins this week. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have already failed to cover a game on national television this year against the Iowa State Cyclones, and the Kansas Jayhawks… Well, they’re the Kansas Jayhawks… There’s a reason that Head Coach Charlie Weis is probably being fired at the end of the season, and there’s a reason that this school is already paying more attention to college hoops than the collegiate gridiron.
3 – The number of consecutive wins from an SU and an ATS perspective for the Penn State Nittany Lions over the Michigan Wolverines. Of course, those three games all occurred with Joe Paterno coaching the team, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien hasn’t even gotten his first sniff at Big Blue. It’s a sin that these two teams don’t play each other more often, but with the way that the new Big Ten is shaped, this is a game that isn’t going to happen all that often. It’s one where Penn State can make a real statement though, and the Nittany Lions very well could be very dangerous in this one.
6 – The number of consecutive times that the home team has covered in the rivalry game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Wisconsin Badgers. If that stays the case, there’s going to be a Top 25 team going down at the Bounce House, as Camp Randall could claim the ranking for the Wildcats. Northwestern was ranked in the Top 15 in the land just last week, but if it was to suffer consecutive losses to the Ohio State Buckeyes and these Badgers, it would be knocked out of the Top 25 as quickly as its time slipped away as a Rose Bowl contender.
6 – The number of teams ranked in the Top 12 in the country that are going to be playing games away from home this week. The Oklahoma Sooners shouldn’t really count in this, as they have the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl, but it definitely isn’t a strong enough crimson and cream contingent to call it a home game either. The South Carolina Gamecocks have a dangerous game at the Arkansas Razorbacks, while the Texas A&M Aggies have the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and they clearly aren’t in any danger whatsoever against the Kentucky Wildcats, but those two Top 5 teams in the Pac-12 might be a different story. The Stanford Cardinal have to visit the Utah Utes, and it seems as though this is a game that could be tricky. Stanford is one of the squarest teams of the weekend. The Oregon Ducks meanwhile, head to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies, where U-Dub handed Stanford its only loss of the season in 2012. We’re not guaranteeing that at least one of these six will fall, but save for Alabama, there is a gripe that the other five could have some real issues keeping their spots.
6 – The number of consecutive covers for the Pittsburgh Panthers against the Virginia Tech Hokies. There’s just one problem with that logic. All of that goes back to the time when these two were mates in the old Big East before it was raided by the ACC the first time. Yes, Pittsburgh did cover last year in what was a non-conference game against the Hokies, but this is a much different situation this year with these two teams splitting the ACC Coastal Division. What we will say about these two though, is that they both only have one loss, and both of those losses came against Top 10 teams. This might be a much better game than you expect on Saturday afternoon.
9 – The number of consecutive SU victories for the Oregon Ducks over the Washington Huskies. The more impressive stat is probably the fact that the Huskies are only 0-8-1 ATS in those nine games, proving that they haven’t really been able to hang with the Quack Attack either. This is one of the more brutal rivalries in the Pac-12 that you don’t hear anything about, and there is no doubt that all of those crazy football fans in Seattle that pile into CenturyLink Field for Seahawks games are going to be doing the same here for the Huskies. They want to get back into contention in the Pac-12 North, and winning this game and pulling off the upset as two-touchdown underdogs is the only option for that.
10.5 – The number of points that the Wisconsin Badgers are favored by over the Northwestern Wildcats. That’s not the most notable stat in the world, but what makes it notable is the fact that Northwestern is a ranked team. We see unranked teams favored over ranked teams all the time in college football betting, but it isn’t all that often that we see it at this magnitude without any injuries of note. The oddsmakers are simply telling you that Wisconsin is the better team and the better team by a healthy margin. Keep in mind that everyone recognizes that Wisky’s only loss should be against the Ohio State Buckeyes, as that loss against the Arizona State Sun Devils probably should have been a win had the refs gotten it right on the field.
28 – The number of points that the Alabama Crimson Tide are favored by in Week 7. That makes them the only team favored by more than 24.5 and the biggest favorite on the board. We should mention that the Auburn Tigers are -43.5 against the Western Carolina Catamounts, but we aren’t counting these FBS vs. FCS games. Bama would be favored by five touchdowns at home against the Kentucky Wildcats, but because this game is played at Commonwealth Stadium instead of at Bryant Denny Stadium, we have that discrepancy. QB AJ McCarron and the gang aren’t covering spreads right now, as that 5-0 SU record is far more impressive than the 2-3 ATS mark. Both sides of the ball are going to have to play hard if this number is going to be covered for sure.
41 – The number of points in the ‘total’ in the game between the South Florida Bulls and the Connecticut Huskies. The failures of these two teams are part of the reason why the Big East failed and why the new American Athletic Conference is going to probably never get a team in the upcoming playoffs that college football will soon have. These two have horrid offenses, and it’s no wonder why this is the lowest ‘total’ of the week. We’ve already seen UConn change its head coach, and we are pretty sure that in spite of the fact that this is the first year for Head Coach Willie Taggart that he is on the hot seat as well. These two teams are just 1-8 between them, and the one win came last week for USF against Cincinnati.
47.6 – The number representing the percentage of road teams to cover games this year in the NCAA. That’s really an amazing stat when you think about it, as home teams are generally at least a little more square than road teams are, and the numbers haven’t quite balanced out yet. It’s not an egregious error by any stretch of the imagination, but do keep in mind that there are going to be some more road teams that find their way in front of the number, especially in these conference rivalry games that tend to be a little bit closer.
76 The number of points in the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. A couple of games get the honor this week, as this is the number for both the Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies and the Texas A&M Aggies vs. Ole Miss Rebels. In the two cases though, we have very different answers as to why these numbers are so big. Oregon and Washington are just going to run a ton of plays against the other. There could be 200 snaps at the pace that these two play at. Pace isn’t so much the issue for the Aggies. QB Johnny Manziel is awesome, and he is going to get at least his 35 points virtually every single game. The question comes with his defense, which is one of the worst in the SEC. In fact, that’s a bit of a trend that we are seeing in the SEC this year… maybe these defenses aren’t as vaunted as they have been in the past, and the door is opening for someone else to challenge for the National Championship.