College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 4


When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 4. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!

4: The number of games that the Cal Golden Bears have covered in a row in the Pac-12. Of course, it is also going to be the number of games in a row that the USC Trojans have failed to cover to start the season if they can’t win this game by more than two touchdown. Cal did a great job sticking around with the Ohio State Buckeyes last week, and it really should be up for a great fight with the Men of Troy. USC is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following an SU defeat though, and this is going to be tough for the Trojans coming off of a season-crippling loss to beat a rival that is as hungry as the Golden Bears are.

5: The number of teams that are favored by at least 32 points this week. The biggest of the bunch is the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Michigan State Spartans are all amongst the biggest favorites of the weekend. The teams that are playing against these clubs are all out of the worst conferences in America, but odds have it, at least one or two of the big time dogs are going to cover the point spread.
5: The number of consecutive games in which the West Virginia Mountaineers have both beaten and covered the Maryland Terrapins. These two teams are going to meet once again on Saturday, and it is sure to be a one-sided affair. The Terps are 2-1 this year, but they clearly aren’t anywhere near as good as the 2-0 Mountaineers, who are ranked in the Top 10 in America for a reason. QB Geno Smith should make sure that West Virginia is moving the ball up and down the field once again versus a Maryland team that is going to have its work cut out for it.

6: The number of quarters that the Florida State Seminoles have played with their first teamers thus far this season. The Noles have had three romps over the course of the year, and Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has called off the dogs in all three. Now though, Florida State has to take on the Clemson Tigers in a game that surely won’t be one that is over with after a quarter or two. QB EJ Manuel is going to have to play the distance, something that he wasn’t able to do last year when he was held out of the lineup from this game, which the Seminoles lost.

8-1: The number representing the record for the UCLA Bruins from an ATS standpoint against the Oregon State Beavers over the course of the last decade. UCLA has only won these last three games by a total of 15 points though, and it is going to be in for a challenge against a Beavers team that really wants to get back on the field after playing just one game in the first three weeks of the year. The Bruins look legit, but it is only three weeks into the year. This could be the continuation of domination in this series, but only if the hosts end up coming up with another big time effort in what might be one of their tougher games of the year to date.

11: The number of games out of 12 that the home team has won in the series between the Auburn Tigers and the LSU Tigers. This year though, that just isn’t expected to be the case, knowing that the Bayou Bengals are clearly the better of these two teams and are favored by three touchdowns. LSU does have the one road win in this series since 2000, coming four years ago. Remember that this is the same Auburn team that was nearly beaten (and should have been beaten) by Louisiana Monroe last week. QB Zach Mettenberger and the LSU defense should be amped up to come into Jordan Hare Stadium and romp.

12: The total number of points that the Michigan Wolverines have beaten the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by over the course of the last three years. All three games have been won by exactly four points. The Golden Domers exorcized one demon last week when it beat the Michigan State Spartans, and now, they get to play a rare night game under the lights against a Michigan team that they thought they had beaten last year with just a few seconds left to play in the first ever night game at the Big House.

41.5: The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend between the Connecticut Huskies and the Western Michigan Broncos. Get used to talking about this with UConn, as this is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country. Every week when we talk about the lowest ‘totals’ of the weekend, this is the team that is going to come up quite a bit. The program has been terrible over the course of the last few years since Head Coach Randy Edsall left, and now, the Huskies have to go on the road to Kalamazoo to take on the Western Michigan Broncos.

49.5: The number of points that the Alabama Crimson Tide are favored by over the Florida Atlantic Owls. Bama has basically done everything right this year, and no one has been able to do much of anything against it. The Crimson Tide are the best team in the country right now, and that really goes without saying. The big question is whether they are going to want to cover this number against FAU. If they do, they’ll do so, because there is no reason to believe that the Owls are going to score a point when the Arkansas Razorbacks and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers weren’t able to either in the last two weeks.

50.8: The number of points per game that the Baylor Bears have scored in their last eight games. All eight were victories, and six of the eight have ended in covers. Of course, Baylor is going to be tough to back this week against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks, who have already forced a pair of teams from the SEC West into overtime this year. Now, the game is going to be on national television against a team from the Sun Belt that is going to be hosting a big time team for one of the first times ever. This is a remarkable chance for the Warhawks to shine, but Baylor’s stout offense, even without RB Terrance Ganaway, WR Kendall Wright, and QB Robert Griffin III, is still going to be formidable.

78.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. It shouldn’t be all that much of a surprise that that game was between the Oregon Ducks and the Arizona Wildcats. These two offenses are rated in the Top 5 in the country in so many categories, and they are going to be amongst the best teams in the Pac-12 this year. Head Coach Rich Rodriguez and Head Coach Chip Kelly are two of the biggest masterminds offensively on the planet, and they are going to be matching wits against each other for the full 60 minutes in this one.

92: The number of yards that the Florida International Golden Panthers had last year against the Louisville Cardinals if you take out the 201 yards that WR T.Y. Hilton in the game. Hilton is gone, and so too is QB Wesley Carroll. The good news for FIU is that it gets to play this game at home, but the bad news is that QB Teddy Bridgewater is now set to take over as one of the top quarterbacks in the Big East. He was only the backup to QB Will Stein in that one. The Golden Panthers are going to need a massive performance if they want to pull off another upset of the Big East favorites.

450: The number of yards that the Oklahoma Sooners outgained the Kansas State Wildcats by last year when these two teams met in Manhattan. QB Collin Klein threw for just 58 yards and completed just eight passes, while QB Landry Jones threw for 505 yards and five scores. Remember at the time, KSU was a 7-0 team, and just like the case is this year, both teams were in the running for the BCS National Championship. You can bet one thing even though this game is going to be in Norman and not Manhattan: Oklahoma isn’t going to be picking up 690 yards against this Wildcats defense.

1986: The number representing the last year that the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Florida Gators. Since that point, Florida has been the dominating team over the course of the last 25 years, winning a number of games by more than three touchdowns. The Wildcats have covered five games in a row, and they have won the last four by at least 34 points. This is going to be an ugly game once again this year for sure, though we know that the Florida offense has been challenge this year against every defense that has come its way.

2008: The number representing the last time that the Minnesota Golden Gophers started 4-0. Of course, that year, they beat up on four nobodies and finished up the season with five straight losses, including losing in the Insight Bowl to the Kansas Jayhawks. Now is another chance for the Gophers, albeit against another weak schedule, to start off at 4-0 at home against the Syracuse Orange. Both of these teams badly need this game to get closer to a bowl game this year, and for Minnesota, this might be a chance to get into the Top 25 for the first time since that point in ’08.

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Aaron Ryan

Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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