College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 11
- Updated: November 10, 2012
When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 11. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of games that the Utah State Aggies have lost from an ATS standpoint this year. The Aggies do have a push to their credit from when they played against the Colorado State Rams, but they’re the real deal for sure. Utah State plays against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs next week in a game that is almost certainly going to be for the WAC Championship, but the game is on the road in Ruston. However, this Utah State team nearly beat the Wisconsin Badgers and BYU Cougars on the road, and it did crush the other favored team in the WAC, the San Jose State Spartans on the road as well, so this isn’t an impossible task.
0: The number of touchdowns that QB Johnny Manziel has had against Top 10 ranked defenses in the last six quarters. For a man that has put up such outrageous numbers this year, Johnny Football has really struggled against some of the best teams in the land. The LSU Tigers and Florida Gators held Manziel’s Aggies to a total of just 36 points with a grand total of zero touchdowns being scored by Manziel either with his legs or his arm since just before halftime of the Florida game, the first of his career. Will that all change against the Alabama Crimson Tide this week? It doesn’t seem optimistic for sure.
5: The number of SEC teams that are ranked in the Top 8 in the BCS rankings this week. That doesn’t really figure to change either, though if the Texas A&M Aggies beat the Alabama Crimson Tide, there very well could be six in the Top 10. Why is that so crucial? Because there are only so many teams that are eligible to get into the BCS, and no conference, not even the might SEC, can have more than two teams. That’s why games for the No. 11 Oregon State Beavers, No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners, No. 13 Clemson Tigers, No. 14 Stanford Cardinal, and the likes are all so important, because each of those teams probably controls its own destiny to get into the BCS even though the SEC has a cartel of clubs in front of them all.
6: The number of consecutive games that the TCU Horned Frogs have failed to cover at home against teams with winning records. That’s an amazing stat to think about, knowing just how well this team has played at home under Head Coach Gary Patterson. Alas, life in the Big XII is proving to be a heck of a lot harder than life was in the Mountain West or Conference USA, so this is a new experience for a program that, to its credit, is clearly still budding. But for this game against the Kansas State Wildcats, it’s going to be tough to avoid a seventh straight failed cover against a team with a winning record at home.
10: The number of years it has been since one of the best regular season games that the Penn State Nittany Lions have ever played. It was back in 2002 when the No. 1 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers came to Happy Valley, and they were beaten and beaten down by a Penn State team that had its eyes fixated to the National Championship that year. It didn’t happen, but the win was one of the best in the school’s history all the same. Now, the two are going to meet in Lincoln with a lot riding on the line for a Nebraska team that might have to win out if it wants to have any chance of going to the Rose Bowl this year.
11: The number of years since the UCLA Bruins were last ranked above the USC Trojans in the AP Poll. This week, that all changed, as Head Coach Jim Mora Jr. finally lived out the prophesy set by Head Coach Rick Neuheisel before him, that Los Angeles would no longer be dominated by the Men of Troy. What’s lost in the shuffle of all of this is that UCLA is just a few wins away from actually winning the Pac-12 South, but the last win that it is going to need to get is going to be the toughest, as USC will come to the Rose Bowl hoping to take care of the Bruins and get to the Pac-12 Championship Game.
18: The number of losses that the Akron Zips and the Massachusetts Minutemen have between them this year. This is clearly going to be the worst FBS vs. FBS game that we have all year long, as these two teams are almost certain to combine for just one win against an FBS program all year… the other one. Akron has three wins against FBS schools since November 5th, 2008. Massachusetts hasn’t won a game against an FBS teams since 1984. That tells you just how badly things are going for both of these teams coming into this week.
19: The number of wins in the last 20 years that the LSU Tigers have over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. This has been a dominant series for years and years for the Bayou Bengals, as MSU has always seemed to be way behind the times. Don’t be all that shocked if the Bulldogs put up a fight though, as they have been beaten and beaten badly over the course of the last two weeks by some of the other great teams in the SEC West. Domination might continue, but it might not be in the same type of fashion as we have become accustomed to.
39.5: The number of points that the BYU Cougars are favored by over the Idaho Vandals this weekend in Provo. It really isn’t a surprise that this is the biggest point spread of the weekend, as Idaho is a wreck of a team that has already fired its head coach and has no direction whatsoever to go in at this point. The Cougs know that they need one win in their last three games to ensure their trip to the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and this is the game that they had better win if they want to avoid that embarrassment.
42.0: The average number of points per game that the Florida Gators have beaten the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns by in the three all-time meetings of these schools. The good news for the Cajuns is that they haven’t met since 1996, and it is clear that the Gators aren’t as good as they were back then, and ULL is a lot better than it was at that point. The bad news is that these two are still on very lopsided terms, and it wouldn’t be surprising to any to see Florida, a 27-point favorite, win by six touchdowns once again.
44: The number representing the lowest ‘total’ on the board in Week 11. That game is the SEC West showdown between the LSU Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both of these teams would love to be better offensively, but they are just challenged on this side of the ball, and both offenses should be stymied once again by stellar defenses. There’s a reason that this ‘total’ is so low, especially after watching how well the Bayou Bengals played defensively on Saturday night last week against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
49: The number of teams that are already bowl eligible this year. The bad news is that there aren’t all that many more that are absolutely locks to be able to do it, and five teams are going to be eligible out of the Sun Belt this year. What’s killing the bowls is that the Penn State Nittany Lions, Ohio State Buckeyes, and North Carolina Tar Heels are all ineligible this year, and it’s going to be really tough to fill all 70 slots. Conferences like the Big East (who have just three bowl eligible teams and may not get another one all year) could make it really tough for all of the bowls to be filled by teams that finished 6-6 or better. Contingency teams might be needed.
50: The number of points per game that the Texas Tech Red Raiders have scored against the Kansas Jayhawks over the course of the last three years. Yes, there has just been no stopping the Air Raid for the Jayhawks over the course of the last few campaigns, and Head Coach Charlie Weis is likely to become the third different coach over the course of the last four years to fail miserably against T-Tech at KU. The Red Raiders are favored by 26 points, and it is expected that this will be a fourth straight game with at least 42 points scored in this series for Head Coach Tommy Tuberville and the gang.
77.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. It shouldn’t be considered much of a surprise that we are once again talking about the Baylor Bears. Baylor games have AVERAGED over 1,100 yards of offense this year, and matters are probably only going to get worse this week against QB Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Sooners. This offense has had some flat out awesome games these last few weeks as well, and this should once again be a barnburner, just as it was last year when these clubs met in Waco, a game that proved to be a showcase for QB Robert Griffin III.
331.8: The number of yards per game that the Oregon Ducks have averaged against the Cal Golden Bears in their last four trips to San Fran/Berkeley. Two years was the biggest shock of them all, as Oregon, then an 18.5 point favorite with an implied team total of roughly 40, scored just 15 points and had just one offensive touchdown for the whole game against the Golden Bears. Perhaps this is about all that Head Coach Jeff Tedford is good for at this point, knowing that he used to be the OC for the Ducks way back when. Maybe he can drop Head Coach Chip Kelly off a resume to be an OC again when this one is said and done with, because his job as a Head Coach of the Golden Bears is done at the end of the year.