Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens – Free ATS Pick Week 17

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Sunday, 12/30/2018 at 04:25 pm CLEVELAND (7-8) at BALTIMORE (10-6)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
315CLEVELAND 40 22.4 24.5 7-8 10-6-0 7-8-1 118.3 250.4 368.7 135.2 257.8 393
316BALTIMORE -6 24.3 17.9 10-6 8-8-0 7-9-0 152.7 222.4 375.1 82.9 209.9 292.8

Last Updated: 2018-12-27

To conclude the 2018 regular season, the Cleveland Browns (+5) will be taking on their AFC North nemesis Baltimore Ravens (-5) at M&T Bank Stadium. This important late afternoon game is scheduled to start at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds

The spread for this AFC matchup is sitting at 5 points in favor of Baltimore. The Browns are currently getting +170 moneyline odds while the Ravens are -200. The over/under is set at 41 points. It looks like this contest ought to have some live betting opportunities.

This game’s line originally opened at -6 while the over/under was initially pegged at 41.5, so sharp bettors have been showing a preference the Browns.

The Browns are 7-7-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against AFC North opponents. The Ravens are 9-6 SU overall and 2-3 SU against divisional foes. Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this year as the Browns have gained 1.3 units while the Ravens are up 2.3 units.

The Browns are coming off a 26-18 win over Cincinnati last week where Baker Mayfield completed 27-of-37 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns. Nick Chubb (112 rushing yards on 19 attempts) led the running attack in the win. Rashard Higgins (six receptions, 60 yards, one TD) and Duke Johnson Jr. (six catches, 54 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Baltimore is coming off of a 22-10 win over the Chargers last week. The Ravens defense did its duty in the victory, restricting the Chargers to only 181 passing yards and 51 rushing yards. Keenan Allen had a productive outing in the loss for Los Angeles, accounting for 58 yards on five catches. For Baltimore, Lamar Jackson completed 12-of-22 passes for 204 yards and one touchdown. Gus Edwards (92 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jackson (39 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the win while Nick Boyle (two receptions, 15 yards) and Kenneth Dixon (two catches, 20 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Cleveland has run the ball on 42.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baltimore has a rush percentage of 48.4 percent. The Browns have run for 123 yards/game (including 119 per game against North opponents) and have 15 scores via handoffs this year. The Ravens are logging 143 rushing yards per contest (121 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Ravens ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has given up only 30 sacks while their D-line has logged 43 sacks. The Browns offensive line has given up 38 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 35 times.

The Browns have averaged 259 yards in the air overall (265 per game versus conference opposition) and have 26 passing TDs so far. The Ravens have put up 235 pass yards per outing (281.0 in the AFC) and have 18 total pass scores.

Defensively, Cleveland has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 124 yards and throw for 279 yards per game. Baltimore has been significantly better than that, giving up 85.1 rushing yards per game and 218.3 to opponents in the air. The Ravens are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.08 to opposing QBs, while the Browns have given up a 5.67 ANY/A.

Mayfield has put up 3,161 passing yards this year, and has completed 269-of-413 attempts with 22 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mayfield has a 6.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.34 over the last two games.

Lamar Jackson has tallied 891 yards, five TDs and three INTs for Baltimore. His ANY/A stands at 5.93 for the season and 7.40 over his past two games.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Tip

Prediction: SU Winner – Browns, ATS Winner – Browns, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

The Browns offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Ravens have accounted for six such plays.

The Cleveland defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Baltimore has given up three such plays.

The Cleveland offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Baltimore has created nine such runs.

The Browns defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Ravens have given up six such runs.

The Baltimore defense has registered 43 sacks on the year while Cleveland has just 35.

Cleveland has averaged 5.1 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 5.0 over its last two.

Baltimore has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.

Over its last three matches, Baltimore is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Cleveland’s last game going into it was 44. The O/U pushed in the team’s 26-18 victory over Cincinnati.

Over its last three games, Cleveland is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Baltimore’s previous match was 43. The under cashed in the 22-10 win over the Chargers.

Cleveland has won six of its last seven games SU, with a December 2nd defeat to Houston accounting for the only loss over that stretch.

Baltimore has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -3-point defeat to Kansas City on December 9th representing its only loss over that stretch.

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