The Bulldogs and Bulldogs are set to face off at 3:00 ET on ESPN+. The Bulldogs will host the game at Pete Hanna Center in Homewood, AL. This Southern conference matchup has an over/under of 151 points, and Samford is favored to win by -14.5 at home vs. Citadel.


The Pick: Citadel Bulldogs +14.5

This game will be played at Pete Hanna Center at 3:00 ET on Saturday, March 2nd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Bulldogs.
  • Not only will Samford pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -14.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 151 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Can the Bulldogs Pull Off a Road Win?

After losing their last game to East Tennessee State by a score of 81-63, Citadel comes into this matchup with a record of 11-19. They have gone 3-14 in Southern Conference play and are 2-12 on the road this season.

Over their last 10 games, the Bulldogs have gone 1-9 on the road, and they have a scoring differential of -6.5 points per game away from home. So far, Citadel has been the underdog in 20 of their 30 games, and they have gone 2-18 in those contests.

Against the spread, The Citadel has a record of 13-13-1 this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-8 and their last 3 road ATS record is 1-2. As the underdog, the Bulldogs are 8-11-1 vs. the spread this year and their last 3 underdog ATS mark is 1-2.

This season, the over/under record for Citadel games sits at 11-14-2. On average, their games have finished with 138.9 points, which is just below their average over/under line of 140. So far, 21 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line of 151.

Compared to their season average of 70.1 points per game, Citadel struggled in their previous game. Against East Tennessee State, the Bulldogs scored 63 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 45.7%. AJ Smith is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 16.6. Meanwhile, Elijah Morgan also brings a PPG average of 14.4 into the game.

At this time, the Bulldogs’ defense is positioned 120th in the country, permitting 70.4 points per game. In their previous game vs. East Tennessee State, the Buccaneers finished with a field goal percentage of 45% and a total of 81 points vs. Citadel.

Will the Bulldogs Defense Show Up at Home?

Samford will be looking to bounce back from a 91-69 loss to Wofford. Over their last 10 games at home, the Bulldogs have gone 10-0.

So far this season, Samford has a record of 25-5. They have been favored in 21 games and have gone 19-2 in those matchups.

Samford has an overall ATS record of 16-11 this season, including a mark of 9-5 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bulldogs are 4-6 vs. the spread. At home this season, Samford is 7-3 ATS.

Samford’s over/under record for the season is 12-15 and today’s line of 151 is lower than the average OU line in their games (155.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 154 points and their OU record during this span is 2-1.

Compared to their season average of 86.7 points per game, Samford struggled in their previous game. Against Wofford, the Bulldogs scored 69 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 38.2%. In terms of offense, the Bulldogs have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, putting them 40th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 35th in percentage and 15th in three-pointers made.

The Bulldogs’ defense is presently ranked 234th nationally, allowing an average of 74.4 points per contest. Samford’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Wofford offense to knock down 54% of their shots on their way to putting up 91 points.