Looking to win big? The Bulldogs and Bears face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Bears are hosting the game at Hawkins Arena in Macon, GA. This Southern conference matchup has an over/under of 133.5 points, and Mercer is favored to win by -4.5 at home vs. Citadel.


The Pick: Mercer Bears -4.5

This game will be played at Hawkins Arena at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, February 21st.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Bears.
  • Not only will Mercer pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 133.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Are Citadel Ready for a Road Win?

With a 10-17 record, Citadel has struggled this season, but they have been much better at home compared to the road. Their record at home is 5-6, while they are just 2-11 on the road. As the underdog, the Bulldogs have gone 1-16 this season.

Coming off a 76-51 win over VMI, Citadel will look to snap their seven-game losing streak on the road. Over their last 10 games away from home, they have gone 2-8.

Against the spread, The Citadel is 12-11-1 this season. As the underdog, the Bulldogs have gone 7-9-1 vs. the spread this year. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-7 and over their last 10 road games, they are 5-5 vs. the spread. In their last three games as the underdog, The Citadel is 1-2 vs. the spread.

The over/under record for Citadel games this season is 9-13-2, and the average scoring total in their games is 137.9 points. Today’s over/under line of 133.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (140.2). In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 135 points.

The Citadel offense is coming off a game where they scored 76 points against VMI. They posted a field goal percentage of 52.6% and connected on 6 threes. Offensively, the Bulldogs hold a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, placing them 176th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 260th in terms of percentage and 294th in three-pointers made.

The Bulldogs’ defense is presently ranked 113rd nationally, allowing an average of 69.7 points per contest. Citadel’s three-point defense is currently 157th in the country at 7.4 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 42.0% of their shots vs. Citadel.

Will the Bears Live Up to Expectations at Home?

At home this season, Mercer has gone 6-5, and they have won three straight games at home. They are 5-4 when favored this season, and their average scoring margin at home is +.8 points per game.

So far this year, the Bears have gone 12-15, including a 5-9 record in Southern Conference games. In their last game, they beat Samford by a score of 88-84.

As the favorite, Mercer’s ATS record this season is 4-4-1. Their overall ATS mark for the year is 12-11-1, and they are 7-4 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears have gone 5-4-1.

Today’s over/under line of 133.5 is right in line with the average over/under line in Mercer’s games this year (140). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2.

The Mercer offense is coming off a game in which they scored 88 points vs. Samford. Overall their field goal percentage was 54% while connecting on 4 threes. Jalyn McCreary is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 15.2. Meanwhile, Jake Davis also brings a PPG average of 9.1 into the game.

The Bears’ defense is presently ranked 144th nationally, allowing an average of 71.0 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Citadel, the Mercer defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Mercer made 16 free-throws vs. the Bears.