Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins Week 16 Betting Pick


In a battle of two teams that like to air it out, the Dolphins (-1) are set to welcome the Cincinnati Bengals to Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on CBS.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds 12/22/2019

Miami is favored by 1 point in this AFC game. The Bengals are currently receiving -105 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are -115. The over/under has been set at 46.5 points. It appears that there should be some good live betting opportunities for this matchup.

With the game’s O/U initially placed at 45.5, the sharp action is siding with the over.

The Bengals are 1-13 straight up (SU) while the Dolphins are 3-11 SU. The less-than-stellar Bengals are 5-8-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 12.3 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 5-8-1.

The Dolphins are up 0.4 units this season. The team is 7-7 ATS and has an even O/U record of 7-7.

Both teams enter this matchup on two-game losing streaks. The Bengals will attempt to get back in stride after a 34-13 loss to New England last week. Andy Dalton completed only 17-of-31 passes for 151 yards, one score and four interceptions. Joe Mixon (136 rushing yards on 25 attempts) mounted the ground attack while Tyler Boyd (three receptions, 26 yards) and Tyler Eifert (three catches, 44 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Miami just fell 36-20 to the Giants in Week 15. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 23-of-41 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Patrick Laird (46 rushing yards on 12 attempts) handled the running game while Albert Wilson (five receptions, 59 yards) and DeVante Parker (four catches, 72 yards, two TDs) led the receiving attack in the loss.

When looking at offensive play selection, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Cincinnati’s run the ball on 37.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Miami has an overall rush percentage of 36.1. The Bengals have rushed for 91 yards per game and have six scores on the ground this year. The Dolphins are averaging 71 rush yards per contest and have eight total rushing TDs.

The Bengals have averaged 243 yards through the air overall and have 13 passing scores so far. The Dolphins have put up 240 pass yards per game and have 17 total pass TDs.

Cincinnati appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 158 yards and throw for 245 yards per game. Miami has allowed 140.9 rushing yards per game and 266.9 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bengals have given up an ANY/A of 7.49 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins are yielding an ANY/A of 7.8.

Dalton is up to 2,646 pass yards on the year. He’s connected on 243-of-406 attempts with 11 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Dalton has a 4.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.70 over the past two games.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Cincinnati in this one. Joe Mixon (779 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 210 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns on the year), Tyler Boyd (784 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Tyler Eifert (296 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played key roles lately.

On the other sideline, Ryan Fitzpatrick has produced 2,545 yards, 15 TDs and 11 INTs. Fitzpatrick’s ANY/A sits at 5.35 for the year and 5.99 over his past two outings.

Patrick Laird, Isaiah Ford and DeVante Parker have combined to account for 353 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last two games.

When these two franchises met a year ago, Cincinnati earned the win 27-17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Betting Pick

SU Winner – Bengals, ATS Winner – Bengals, O/U – Under


Team Betting Trends

The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s previous game was set at 42. The over cashed in the team’s 34-13 loss to New England.

As a team, Cincinnati has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.4 over its last two.

Miami has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.

Miami has lost eight fumbles this season while Cincinnati has let 13 get away.

Over its last three matchups, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Miami’s previous game was set at 46.5. The over cashed in that 36-20 defeat to the Giants.

In its last three matches, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Miami has lost five of its last six games SU, with a six-point win over Philadelphia on December 1st representing its lone victory over that stretch.

The Bengals offense has produced seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Dolphins have put up six such plays.

The Cincinnati defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Miami has given up five such plays.

The Cincinnati offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami has created three such runs.

The Bengals defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Dolphins have given up eight such runs.

The Cincinnati defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this season. Miami has registered 18 sacks.