Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns – Betting Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 01:00 pm CINCINNATI (6-8) at CLEVELAND (6-7)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
119CINCINNATI 44 24.1 29.5 6-8 7-7-0 9-5-0 103.9 222.1 326 142.2 270.8 413
120CLEVELAND -10 22.1 24.9 6-7 9-5-0 6-8-0 121.2 234.6 355.8 126.1 275.1 401.2

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Browns (-7) are set to welcome the Cincinnati Bengals to Cleveland. This AFC North showdown starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

In this Sunday AFC game, Cleveland has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Bengals are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Browns are -260. If one squad can create a bunch of points early on it’ll produce a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points.

Odds have shifted a hair from where they were originally posted. The opening line was -7 while the game’s O/U was set initially at 46.

The Bengals are down 1.1 units so far and 7-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 9-5.

The Browns are up 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 9-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-8.

The Bengals have gone 6-8 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AFC North opponents. The Browns are 6-7-1 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.

The Bengals are coming off a resounding 30-16 victory over Oakland last week. Jeff Driskel completed just 14-of-33 passes for 130 yards, along with a score and a pick. Joe Mixon (129 yards on 27 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Tyler Boyd (four receptions, 38 yards, one TD) and Alex Erickson (three catches, 23 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Cleveland just picked up a 17-16 win over Denver in Week 15. The defensive secondary allowed the Broncos to air it out for 257 yards. Tim Patrick was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 65 yards on five catches for Denver. For Cleveland, Baker Mayfield completed 18-of-31 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Nick Chubb (100 rushing yards on 20 attempts) led the running game as Antonio Callaway (five receptions, 35 yards, one TD) and Duke Johnson Jr. (four catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Cincinnati has run the ball on 38.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cleveland has an overall rush percentage of 42.8 percent. The Bengals have rushed for 104 yards/game (including 87 per game against North opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Browns are averaging 121 rushing yards per game (112 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then the Bengals might have the more disruptive lines up front, as their offensive line has given up only 40 sacks while the D-line registered 41 sacks. The Browns, on the other hand, have allowed 50 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 34 times.

The Bengals offensive scheme has averaged 239 yards in the air overall (240 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Browns have put up 253 pass yards per game (244.3 in the AFC) and have 23 total pass scores.

Defensively, Cincinnati has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 142 yards and pass for 282 yards per game. The Cleveland D has given up 289.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 126.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Browns are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.64 to opposing QBs, while the Bengals have allowed a 7.22 ANY/A.

Driskel has amassed 605 pass yards on the year, and has completed 62-of-106 attempts with three passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Driskel’s got a 4.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.20 over the last two outings.

We expect the Cincinnati offense to mix it up in this one. Joe Mixon (884 rushing yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving touchdown on the year), Tyler Boyd (976 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and C.J. Uzomah (347 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played significant roles lately.

Baker Mayfield has completed 242-of-385 passes for 2,827 yards, 20 TDs and 11 INTs for Cleveland. His ANY/A stands at 6.27 for the year and 7.54 across his last two games.

Nick Chubb (794 rushing yards, seven rush TDs, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Jarvis Landry (zero rush yards, 770 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Breshad Perriman (138 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined to account for 443 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of games.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

SU Winner – Browns, ATS Winner – Bengals, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Trends

The Cincinnati defensive unit has 33 sacks on the year while Cleveland has 32.

Cleveland has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while the Cincinnati offense has lost four.

The Bengals offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Browns have put up five such plays.

The Cincinnati defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Cleveland has given up eight such plays.

The Cincinnati offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Cleveland has created 16 such runs.

The Bengals defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Browns have given up 12 such runs.

The Over/Under for Cleveland’s previous matchup was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the 17-16 win over Denver.

Over its last three contests, Cleveland is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

In its last three matches, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Cleveland has won five of its last six games SU, with a -16-point defeat to Houston on December 2nd accounting for the lone loss over that stretch.

The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s last game was set at 45.5. The over cashed in the team’s 30-16 win over Oakland.

As a team, Cincinnati has rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.

Cleveland has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.

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