Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick 09/25/19

The Chicago Cubs will be squaring off against their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates. WGN will televise the matchup and the opening pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Pittsburgh (+165) as the underdog to Chicago (-175). Gamblers can bet on the matchup’s total with odds posted at even money (+100) for over 9.5 runs and -120 for under 9.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at -120 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and +100 for the Pirates +1.5 runs.

The Pirates are 66-91 straight up (SU) and 74-82 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 16.2 units for moneyline bettors and 24.8 units ATS. The Cubs, on the other hand, have gone 82-75 SU this year and are 74-82 against the spread. They’re down 9.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.7 units ATS.

Pittsburgh games have an over/under record of 89-59-8 in 2019. The Cubs have an over/under record of 71-74-11.

Jon Lester will get the start for Chicago. The left-handed Lester is 13-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 161 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (four starts).

The Pirates will send righty Dario Agrazal (4-5, 5.08 ERA) to the hill. Agrazal has 36 strikeouts and 18 walks to his credit, along with a WHIP of 1.40. Agrazal has yet to face the Cubs this year and did not record any MLB appearances last season.

Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.94 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.91, along with a K-per-9 of 9.07.

Cubs hitters have slashed .253/.334/.453 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).

Third baseman Kris Bryant and first baseman Anthony Rizzo continue to lead Chicago’s offense. Bryant is slashing .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs, 77 RBIs and 108 runs scored, while Rizzo (.294/.406/.522) is up to 27 homers, 94 RBIs and 89 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have given up 5.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 5.46, a WHIP of 1.45 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.99 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 71 games against NL Central opponents, Pirates starters have an ERA of 5.76 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.43.

The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .208/.238/.287 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Pirates’ batters have been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds. Marte is hitting .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 82 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 stolen bases, and the line for Reynolds stands at .314/.378/.504 with 16 homers, 68 RBIs and 83 runs.

The Cubs have lost 1.9 units and are 61-63 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 58 of those games, compared to 57 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 10.4 units and are 17-24 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 28 of those games, as opposed to 12 which went under the total.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER