Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 05/16/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-16

Javier Baez and the Chicago Cubs are ready to take on their NL Central foe Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. NBC Sports Chicago will televise the action and the game gets going at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Chicago (+110) is the underdog against Cincinnati (-120) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total stand at -110 for both the over and the under. This game currently has a runline of Cubs +1.5 (-190) and Reds -1.5 (+165).

The Cubs have gone 25-15 SU this year and are 20-19 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 6.7 units for moneyline bettors through the early portions of the year and 2.2 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 19-24 SU and 25-17 ATS. The team has lost 5.0 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 5.5 units ATS.

Cincinnati games have an over/under record of 14-27-1 so far in 2019. The Cubs have an over/under record of 20-18-1.

Jose Quintana will get the nod for Chicago. The left-handed Quintana is 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 46 strikeouts. This is his first start against Cincinnati this year. He did make four starts against the Reds in 2018, posting a 2-2 record against them with a 3.27 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

The Reds are putting the ball in the right hand of Luis Castillo (4-1, 1.76 ERA), who has 70 strikeouts and 24 walks as well as a 0.99 WHIP. Castillo made five starts against the Cubs in 2018, putting together a 2-1 record with a 4.74 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 3.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have a 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 16 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.95 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.01.

Cincinnati’s hitters are putting up 4.1 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .250/.301/.411 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Reds’ batters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Suarez is hitting .263/.341/.577 with 13 home runs, 29 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Iglesias has produced a line of .295/.331/.439 with three homers, 15 RBIs and 16 runs.

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.92, along with a WHIP of 1.21 and a K-per-9 of 9.68.

Cubs hitters have slashed .255/.348/.448 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant have led Chicago’s offense. Baez is slashing .322/.357/.608 with 11 home runs, 29 RBIs and 31 runs scored. Bryant is hitting .267/.400/.527 with eight homers, 26 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

The Cubs have gained 5.8 units and are 16-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.9 units and are 7-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to five that’ve cashed the under.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has cashed in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

The Cubs have a total OPS of .796 this season and an OPS of .812 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS stands at .684 overall and .656 versus righties.

Cincinnati has recorded 21.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.8 over its last five.

The Cubs have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 15 over their last 10.

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