Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 05/15/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-15

Javier Baez and the surging Chicago Cubs will face off against their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. WGN will broadcast the matchup and the game will get underway at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (getting -110 odds) is hosting this one as the favorite over Chicago and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Cubs +1.5 (-210) and Reds -1.5 (+175).

The Reds are 25-16 against the spread (ATS), but only 18-24 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 7.1 units ATS. The Cubs are 25-14 SU and have gone 19-19 against the spread. They’ve accumulated 5.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 0.8 units ATS.

Reds games have an over/under record of 14-26-1 so far in 2019. Cubs games have gone over 20 times, gone under 17 times and pushed on one occasion.

Yu Darvish will get the nod for the visiting Cubs. The right-handed Darvish is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 44 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 1.50 ERA and seven strikeouts across six innings).

The Reds are planning to start righty Sonny Gray (0-4, 4.15 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and 16 walks to his credit as well as a 1.21 WHIP. Gray did not re a start against the Cubs in 2018.

As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 3.4 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.39, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.8. The bullpen has a 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 15 games against divisional foes, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.86 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.22.

Cincinnati’s offense has produced 4.1 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .237/.286/.405 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Suarez is hitting .252/.333/.550 with 12 home runs, 26 RBIs and 23 runs scored, while the line for Iglesias stands at .289/.326/.406 with 37 hits, 13 RBIs and 15 runs.

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.61 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.77, along with a K-per-9 of 9.76.

Cubs hitters have slashed .255/.351/.447 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Chicago’s offense has been powered by shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant, who have combined to swat 19 home runs. Baez is hitting .325/.362/.620 with 11 home runs, 29 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Bryant (.270/.406/.539) is up to eight homers, 26 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

The Cubs have gained 4.8 units and are 15-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 15 of those games, as opposed to 14 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 2.0 units and are 18-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 11 of those games, compared to 21 which went under the total.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has hit in three of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

The Cubs have an OPS of .798 this season and an OPS of .813 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .679 overall and .651 versus righties.

The Cubs have won six of their last seven games SU.

Chicago fielders have committed 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to only five errors for Cincinnati over its last 10.

The Cubs have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 18 over their last 10.

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