Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers – Free Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 04:05 pm CHICAGO (10-4) at SAN FRANCISCO (4-10)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
125CHICAGO 44 27.4 18.9 10-4 10-4-0 8-6-0 119.7 226.1 345.8 83.5 227.4 310.9
126SAN FRANCISCO +4 21.5 26.6 4-10 5-9-0 8-6-0 123.4 240.8 364.2 112.1 233.4 345.5

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Chicago Bears (-3.5) are set to take on the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. This late afternoon game gets underway at 4:05 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on FOX.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds

The line for this NFC game is sitting at 3.5 points in favor of Chicago. The Bears are currently getting -160 moneyline odds while the 49ers are +140. This NFC matchup will likely have multiple in-game betting opportunities. The over/under is set at 43 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with both the Niners and the under. The line initially opened at 5 while the over/under was originally set at 44.

The Bears are 10-4 straight up (SU) while the 49ers are 4-10 SU. The Bears have gained 4.0 units so far and are 10-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 8-6.

The hapless 49ers have lost 6.7 units this season. They’re 5-9 ATS and the over has hit in eight of their games.

Both teams come into the contest on two-game winning streaks. The Bears made it two in a row after a 24-17 victory over Green Bay in Week 15 where their defense allowed the Packers to throw for 274 yards. Davante Adams had a productive day for the Packers in that one with 119 yards on eight catches. Offensively, Mitchell Trubisky completed 20-of-28 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Howard (just 60 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) propelled the ground attack while Cohen (five receptions, 31 yards, one TD) and Trey Burton (four catches, 36 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

San Francisco just put together a 26-23 win over Seattle in Week 15. The Niners defense allowed the Seahawks to rush for 168 yards on 35 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Chris Carson had a productive showing in the loss, recording 119 rushing yards and a score on 22 attempts for Seattle. For San Francisco, Nick Mullens completed 20-of-29 passes for 275 yards and one touchdown. Matt Breida (50 yards on 17 rush attempts) handled the running game as Dante Pettis (five receptions, 83 yards) and Breida (five catches, 46 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

In terms of offensive play selection, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Chicago has run the ball on 46.9 percent of its offensive possessions while San Francisco has a rush percentage of 45.6. The Bears have produced 120 rush yards/game and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Niners are totaling 123 rush yards per contest and have six total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Bears could own the edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has yielded just 39 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The 49ers, on the other hand, have allowed 43 sacks and their defense has forced only 30 sacks.

The Bears have tallied 238 yards/game in the air overall and have 27 passing scores so far. The Niners have recorded 266 pass yards per game and have 23 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Chicago has let opponents run for an average of 84 yards and pass for 249 yards per game. San Francisco has allowed 112.1 yards per game on the ground and 249.4 to opponents in the air. The Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.13 to opposing QBs, while the Niners have allowed a 7.31 ANY/A.

Trubisky has put up 2,704 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 230-of-349 attempts with 22 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Trubisky has a 7.09 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.28 over the past two games.

The Bears have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. The tandem of Jordan Howard (672 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Tarik Cohen (336 rush yards, two rush TDs, 690 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have brought significant production to the offense for Chicago.

On the other sideline, Nick Mullens has accounted for 1,422 yards, eight TDs and five INTs. Mullens’ ANY/A sits at 7.13 for the year and 8.49 over his last two outings.

The Niners should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to George Kittle (944 receiving yards, three receiving TDs), Jeff Wilson Jr. (140 rush yards) and Dante Pettis (-2 rush yards, 397 receiving yards, four TDs) have seen a lot of looks recently.

These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 15-14 victory for San Francisco.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers Free NFL Tip

SU Winner – Bears, ATS Winner – 49ers, O/U – Over


Team Betting Trends

The O/U for Chicago’s last game going into it was 46. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 victory over Green Bay.

Chicago has produced 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its last two.

San Francisco has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its last two.

The San Francisco offense has lost 11 fumbles this season while Chicago has lost eight.

In its last three games, Chicago is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Chicago has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a three-point defeat to New York on December 2nd accounting for the only loss over that stretch.

The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last match was 44. The over cashed in the 26-23 win over Seattle.

In its last three contests, San Francisco is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Bears offense has registered nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the 49ers have accounted for 11 such plays.

The Chicago defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while San Francisco has given up eight such plays.

The Chicago offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Francisco has created 13 such runs.

The Bears defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the 49ers have given up 11 such runs.

The Chicago defense has 45 sacks on the year while San Francisco has just 34.

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