Southeast Division foes will collide when the Miami Heat (41-23) go head-to-head against the Charlotte Hornets (22-42) at AmericanAirlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Free Preview
The Hornets fell to the Atlanta Hawks in their last contest, 143-138. They failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. Charlotte’s Devonte’ Graham had a solid performance, finishing with 27 points and 10 assists. Atlanta had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.8 (above their season average of 21.4). Charlotte, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 2.6 (better than their season average of 12.9). The two teams combined to score 281 points, which finished well over the projected point total of 222.
In the Heat’s previous outing, they covered the 5.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards, 100-89. With 27 points on 9-for-13 shooting, Bam Adebayo led Miami in scoring. Miami dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.7 (below their season average of 20.5) and a free throw rate of 0.348 (above their season average of 0.233). For those same stats, Washington was 8.9 and 0.231, respectively. The two squads collectively scored 189 points, which came in well under the projected point total of 233.5.
The prolific offense of Miami (fourth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 111.3) will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of Charlotte (26th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 111.7). The Heat should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Of Charlotte’s 64 games, 34 have finished under the projected point total, while 38 of Miami’s 64 games have finished over the O/U total. The Heat have the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (41-23 vs. 22-42), but both teams have the same against the spread (ATS) record (32-30-2).
These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 217 points, just over the projected point total of 212.5. The Heat won 117-100, covering as 11-point favorites. The Heat played a nearly perfect game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.312 and a ridiculous effective field goal percentage of 0.604. For those same stats, the Hornets were 0.218 and 0.466, respectively. Adebayo put up a double-double in the victory with 21 points and 13 rebounds.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Hornets, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
The Hornets rank 13th in three pointers attempted per game (34.3) while the Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (38.0).
Charlotte ranks 14th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9) while Miami ranks 25th (17.9).
Charlotte ranks 12th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Miami ranks 27th (11.7).
Miami is second in the league with 11.5 fast break points allowed per game while Charlotte is fourth with 11.8 fast break points allowed per game.
Charlotte is 18-16 ATS on the road with 17 overs and 17 unders.
Miami is 19-11-1 ATS at home with 21 overs and 10 unders.
Charlotte is 8-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 9-1.
The Hornets are 17-24 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 40-17.
The Heat rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Hornets rank 18th (5.0).
Miami ranks seventh in assists per game (25.9) while Charlotte ranks last in assists allowed per game (26.6).
The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while the Hornets rank 23rd (46.1).
The Heat rank 20th in steals per game (7.4) while the Hornets rank 25th (6.6).
Miami ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.5) while Charlotte ranks 22nd (50.6).
Bettings Trends:
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, Charlotte is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 3.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hornets have scored an average of 109.2 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (0.8 above their season average).
