CFL Grey Cup Pick & Prediction: Calgary vs. Toronto

Last Updated: 2017-11-26

The Super Bowl of the Canadian Football League takes place this evening, as the Calgary Stampeders and Toronto Argonauts face off in the 105th Grey Cup. The Stampeders are favored by 7 (-120) and the total on the game is 53.5. Calgary opened as 4-point favorites and the total was 51.

Toronto’s fourth-quarter drive for a touchdown last week advanced them to the big stage, where they’ll look to reverse what happened in the regular season, as the Stampeders took both games, winning 41-24 in the first meeting and taking a 23-7 victory in the second game. The stats were closer in the first game, as Calgary dominated the second game in all areas. The yardage and turnovers were pretty even in the first meeting, but a punt return for a touchdown and several short fields after turnovers helped make the game a bit of a rout.

Toronto was the best of the East, which isn’t really saying a whole lot considering how much better the West was. Toronto was 4-7 straight-up against the West, while Calgary was 6-1 against the East.

Offensively, the Argonauts averaged more yards, while the Stampeders had a slight scoring advantage. Defensively, the difference in yardage allowed between the two teams wasn’t that great, although the Stampeders allowed 18.1 points compared to 25.5 for the Argonauts.

The game is being played in Ottawa and serves as a bit of a reminder to the Stampeders what happened last year, as they were upset by Ottawa in the Grey Cup in what is called one of the biggest upsets in CFL history. But at this point of the season, teams shouldn’t need any extra incentive.

Calgary is approaching the playoffs a bit different this year, having rested some players after clinching the division title and ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak in what were essentially meaningless games. They didn’t have an easy time with Edmonton last week, failing to cover as 5-point favorites after the Eskimos inexplicably kicked a field goal with two minutes remaining in the game and trailing by seven. But the Eskimos are in all likelihood a better team than the Argonauts.

Still, the Argos are playing well and not in any hurry to lay a touchdown in this spot, so will grab the under 53.5 and hope to see the big plays kept to a minimum and a bit of conservative approach at times.

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