The Mustangs and Gauchos are set to face off at 10:00 ET on ESPN+. The Gauchos will host the game at The Thunderdome in Santa Barbara, CA. This Big West conference matchup has an over/under of 135.5 points, and UC Santa Barbara is favored to win by -13.5 at home vs. Cal Poly.


The Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs +13.5

This game will be played at The Thunderdome at 10:00 ET on Thursday, February 29th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Gauchos.
  • Even though we have UC Santa Barbara winning straight-up, we like Cal Poly at +13.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 135.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Will Cal Poly Shock Everyone at The Thunderdome?

Cal Poly enters tonight’s game against UC Santa Barbara as a 13.5-point underdog. The Mustangs have lost 16 straight games and have gone winless in Big West play, going 0-16.

On the road this season, Cal Poly has gone just 1-14, and they have lost their last 12 games away from home. Their average margin of defeat on the road is -14.1 points per game.

As the underdog, Cal Poly has gone 12-15 against the spread this season and they are 6-9 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Mustangs are 5-5 vs. the spread. On the road, Cal Poly has gone 3-7 vs. the spread this season and they are 2-3 vs. the spread in their last 5 road games.

Cal Poly’s over/under record this season is 13-12-2 and the average scoring total in their games is 135.4 points. Today’s over/under line of 135.5 is very close to their season average. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 136 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

The Cal Poly offense is coming off a game where they scored 78 points against UC Riverside. They posted a field goal percentage of 50.9% and connected on 9 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Kobe Sanders, who holds an average of 18.4 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Quentin Jones is averaging 9.5 points per game this season.

Currently, the Mustangs’ defense holds the 193rd rank in the nation, allowing 73.1 points per game. Against UC Riverside in their most recent game, the Cal Poly defense gave up a total of 84 points while allowing UC Riverside to hit 50% of their shots.

Can UC Santa Barbara Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

UC Santa Barbara has played 26 games this season, going 14-12 overall and 7-9 in Big West action. They are 6-6 at home, where they have an average scoring margin of +1.2 points per game. On the other hand, their road record is 6-6, and they have lost their last two games away from home.

As the favorite, the Gauchos have gone 8-7 this season, and they have been favored in 15 of their games. In their most recent contest, they lost to UC Irvine by a score of 81-69, and their record over their last 10 games at home is 5-5.

UC Santa Barbara has not been a great bet at home this season, going just 3-8-1 against the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Gauchos are just 4-6 vs. the spread and have gone 2-3 over their last 5 games as the favorite.

UC Santa Barbara’s over/under record for the season is 14-10 and today’s over/under line of 135.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (145.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points, which is lower than the season average of 144.7.

In contrast to their season average of 75.4 points per game, the UC Santa Barbara had a below average performance. They scored 69 points against UC Irvine and had a field goal percentage of 42.1%. Leading UC Santa Barbara in scoring vs. UC Irvine was Yohan Traore with his 22 points. Ajay Mitchell also added 17 points for the Gauchos.

UC Santa Barbara’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 72.5 points per game. So far, the UC Santa Barbara defense is giving up an average of 7.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.3 times per game (637th).