Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Mustangs and Highlanders. The game is starting at 10:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Highlanders at SRC Arena in Riverside, CA. Get ready to place your bets! This Big West conference matchup has an over/under of 134.5 points, and the Highlanders are favored to win at home vs. the Mustangs.


The Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs +9.5

This game will be played at SRC Arena at 10:00 ET on Thursday, January 11th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Highlanders.
  • Even though we have UC Riverside winning straight-up, we like Cal Poly at +9.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 134.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Can The Mustangs Secure a Win at Riverside?

Cal Poly will enter tonight’s game as a 9.5-point underdog, which is not surprising considering they have been the underdog in 15 of their 16 games this season. The Mustangs are 3-12 as the underdog, and they will be looking to snap a four-game losing streak.

Overall, Cal Poly is just 4-12 this season, including a 0-4 mark in Big West play. On the road, the Mustangs are 1-8, and they have lost six straight games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road this season is -14.9 points per game.

Cal Poly’s ATS record for the season is 7-8, and they are 4-5 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Mustangs are 4-6 ATS.

Cal Poly’s over/under record for the season is 7-7-1, and today’s over/under line of 134.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (135.9). So far, 9 of their games have finished with less points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 133 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 1-2.

Compared to their season average of 64.6 points per game, Cal Poly struggled in their previous game. Against UC Santa Barbara, the Mustangs scored 52 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 30.4%. The top scorer for the Mustangs was Kobe Sanders with 22 points, while Tuukka Jaakkola also chipped in with 7 points.

On the defensive side, Cal Poly is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 73.0 points per game. Cal Poly will look once again to perform well on defense, holding UC Santa Barbara to just 30% shooting in their most recent game.

Can UC Riverside Secure a Home Victory?

UC Riverside will look to snap a two-game losing streak when they take on Cal Poly as 9.5-point favorites. The Highlanders are 6-10 overall, including a 5-2 mark at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +2.1, compared to -14.9 on the road.

So far, UC Riverside has been the favorite in five of its 16 games, going 4-1 in those contests. In the Big West, the Highlanders are 1-3, while they are 5-7 in non-conference action. In their last outing, they fell to Long Beach State, 83-75.

UC Riverside has a 4-3 ATS record at home this season and is 5-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. As the favorite, the Highlanders have gone 2-3 vs. the spread this year and are 5-5 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

So far this season, the over/under record for UC Riverside games is 10-5 and today’s line of 134.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (137.8). In their last three games, the average scoring total is 153 points compared to their season average of 140.8 points per game.

The UC Riverside offense is coming off a game where they scored 75 points against Long Beach State. They posted a field goal percentage of 38.4% and connected on 6 threes. Kyle Owens was the leading scorer for the Highlanders, putting up 19 points. In addition, Kaleb Smith contributed 19 points.

At present, the Highlanders’ defense is nationally ranked 194th, allowing 73.2 points per game. In today’s game, the UC Riverside defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 2 three-pointers while giving up 83 points.