BYU at Utah State College Football Betting Pick 11/2/19


The BYU Cougars (+4) aren’t traveling far to battle the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will televise the action.

BYU at Utah State Betting Odds 11/2/2019

Utah State is giving up 4 points in this game. The Cougars are currently being given +155 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -175. This game will likely offer multiple live betting scenarios. The over/under has been set at 51 points.

Sharp bettors tend to be siding with the Cougars, as the line opened at -5. The game’s total has not changed after it was set initially at 51.

The Cougars are 3-4 straight up (SU) while the Aggies are 4-3 SU. The Cougars are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.3 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 4-3.

The Aggies are down 1.0 unit this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-5.

The Cougars enter after a 28-25 win over Boise State on October 19Their defense allowed the Broncos to run for 174 yards on 40 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. George Holani had a productive day for the Broncos in that one with 97 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Offensively, Baylor Romney completed 15 passes for 221 yards and two touchdowns. Lopini Katoa (just 37 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) and Sione Finau (89 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Matt Bushman (five receptions, 101 yards, two TDs) and Talon Shumway (three catches, 74 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Back on October 26, Air Force knocked off this Utah State team by a score of 31-7. The Aggies defense let the Falcons kill the clock by rushing for 448 yards on 78 attempts, including four rush TDs. Kadin Remsberg put up a good showing in the win, posting 92 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts for Air Force. For Utah State, Jordan Love completed 14-of-23 passes for 114 yards and one touchdown. Gerold Bright (24 yards on six rush attempts) led the ground game in the defeat while Deven Thompkins (six receptions, 26 yards) and Siaosi Mariner (three catches, 38 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Looking at offensive play selection, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. BYU has run the ball on 49.4 percent of its offensive possessions while Utah State has a rush percentage of 47.5. The Cougars have run for 121 yards per game and have 10 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Aggies are putting up 158 rushing yards per contest and have nine total rush TDs.

It seems like the Aggies should hold an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Cougars have tallied 3.6 yards per carry while allowing 4.7 YPC to opponents.

The Cougars have tallied 259 yards/game in the air overall and have eight passing TDs so far. The Aggies have produced 248 pass yards per game and have 10 total pass scores.

BYU seems to possess the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 217 yards and throw for 188 yards per game. Utah State has allowed 180.7 rushing yards per game and 234.9 to opposing teams in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Cougars have given up an ANY/A of 5.85 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies are allowing an ANY/A of 5.98.

Romney is up to 221 passing yards this season, and has completed 15-of-26 attempts with two passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Romney has a pristine 9.04 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.15 over the last two outings.

We expect the BYU offense to mix it up in this one. Matt Bushman (354 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns on the year), Talon Shumway (171 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Lopini Katoa (87 rush yards, one rush TD) have each played key roles of late.

In the home locker room, Jordan Love has tallied 1,451 yards, seven TDs and eight INTs. Love’s ANY/A sits at 5.46 for the season and 4.07 across his past two games.

We expect the Aggies to dictate the game’s clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Siaosi Mariner (388 receiving yards, three TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Gerold Bright (343 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Jaylen Warren (339 rush yards, four rush TDs, 108 receiving yards) have been significant focal points in the Aggies’ recent offensive strategies.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Utah State knocked off BYU handily 45-20.

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies Free Pick

SU Winner – BYU, ATS Winner – BYU, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The Utah State D has recorded twice as many sacks as BYU this season (14 to seven).

Both offenses have lost four fumbles this season.

The Cougars offense has recorded three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Aggies have put up five such plays.

The BYU defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Utah State has given up three such plays.

The BYU offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Utah State has created 11 such runs.

The Cougars defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Aggies have given up eight such runs.

The Over/Under for Utah State’s previous match going into it was 60. The under cashed in the 31-7 loss to Air Force.

Over its last three matchups, Utah State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

Over its last three contests, BYU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for BYU’s last game was set at 44. The over cashed in the team’s 28-25 win over Boise State.

BYU has rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.

Utah State has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its past two.


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