Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 33 – Red Bull Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich (5/11/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-05-11

The Bavarians hold the key in their own hands and could win the title with three points but the Red Bulls will try to prevent the visitors from celebrating in Leipzig. The game between Leipzig and Bayern Munich will take place at Red Bull Arena on May 11th, 2019.

RED BULL LEIPZIG vs. BAYERN MUNICH

Three-Way: 1: Leipzig +400; X: +300 Draw; 2: Bayern -152 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1:Leipzig -127; Bayern +117

Total 3.5 goals: Over +120; Under -154

RED BULL LEIPZIG

Victorious over Bayern here last term, Leipzig now owns the second-best points tally (185) after their first 100 Bundesliga games (as of last week). What’s more, the hosts are on an even longer unbeaten run of 14 Bundesliga games (W10, D4) than their visitors, the last four of which saw them lead at the break.

Just one team has come away with maximum league points from the Red Bull Arena this campaign (W10, D5), while no team has conceded less at home (nine). Furthermore, a league-low four first-half home goals have been let in, which may help explain a league-high ten HT/FT wins here.

Ralf Rangnick will be without suspended Kevin Kampl while Tyler Adams (groin), Konrad Laimer (thigh), Marcel Sabitzer (abdominal strain), and Dayot Upamecano (knee) are listed as doubtful to face Bayern.

Betting Trends:

  • Seven of Timo Werner’s 11 home league goals for Leipzig have come in the first half
  • Both teams scored in just six of Leipzig’s home games this season, while only seven saw over 2.5 goals

BAYERN MUNICH

Unbeaten in 12 league games (W10, D2) and four points clear at the top with two rounds to go, this could be the week that Bayern Munich wraps up their seventh-straight Bundesliga title, and their 28th overall.

Ranked as the best away Bundesliga side (W11, D2, L3), no side has scored more (19) or conceded so few (seven) in the first half of away games than Bayern this season. Indeed, the Bavarians have taken the lead in 12 of their 16 road trips and led at the break in eleven (four draws). Nine of those 11 occasions saw Bayern go on to win the match.

Niko Kovac cannot count on Manuel Neuer (calf) while Javi Martinez and James Rodriguez are listed as questionable to feature on Saturday also because of calf problems.

Betting Trends:

  • Seven of Robert Lewandowski’s last 16 competitive goals for Bayern have come from the 80th minute onwards
  • Bayern scored a league-high 17 headers this season

Bayern won five out of the previous six H2H encounters including the last one that was played this season when it was 1-0 in Munich, while the Red Bulls were victorious in the latest meeting at Red Bull Arena. Leipzig is unbeaten in front of their own fans in the last seven games and even though they don’t have to get three points, I think they will do everything in their power to stop Bayern from securing a title here. That’s why I am backing the hosts to cover the +1 spread in this one.

MY PICK: AH +1 Leipzig (-127)

ADDITIONAL PICK: All three competitive H2H tilts at Leipzig have seen both teams score and the hosts scored at least two goals in each of their last three home games, and I am backing them to score at least one here. On the other hand, each of Bayern’s previous five road games produced goals on both sides and I am going with over 2.5 and BTTS.

MY PICK:Over 2.5 & BTTS (-138)

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