Bundesliga Free Pick of the Day Round 32 – Borurssia Monchengladbach vs. Hoffenheim (5/4/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-05-03

Despite a poor form of late, the Foals have an opportunity to stay alive in the Champions League race with three points here but the visitors are hoping for the same thing as a draw is not an option for the rivals. The game between Borussia Monchengladbach and Hoffenheim will take place at Borussia-Park on May 4th, 2019.

BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH vs. HOFFENHEIM

Three-Way: 1: Gladbach +187; X: +300 Draw; 2: Hoffenheim +125 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Gladbach +104; Hoffenheim -133

Total 3.5 goals: Over -115; Under -111

BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH

It’s been a miserable run-in for Borussia Monchengladbach who is now winless in their last six Bundesliga home matches (D2, L4). Although Gladbach has at least scored one goal in each of their last four matches here, this is still their worst top-flight winless home streak since February 2011.

Yet despite that, the hosts remain just three points off a Champions League place and have seen every Bundesliga home match this season end with over 1.5 goals. However, with 23 of their 29 home league goals being netted after the break, it’s no surprise that nearly half (46.67%) of their top-flight home games have been goalless at half-time.

Dieter Hecking will be without Christoph Kramer (suspension) and Florian Mayer (knee), while Michael Lang (hip), Andreas Poulsen (hip), Raffael (calf), and Lars Stindl (broken leg) are listed as doubtful to face Hoffenheim.

Betting Trends:

  • Alassane Plea has scored in two of Gladbach’s last three Bundesliga home fixtures – his last three league goals were his side’s first of the game
  • Gladbach scored the opener in 60% of their Bundesliga home games this season

HOFFENHEIM

High-scoring Hoffenheim was on a run of four Bundesliga victories – scoring four or more goals in three – before they were thrashed 4-1 at home by Wolfsburg last time out. With that result, seven of their last ten league games have now seen both teams score, and five have featured over 3.5 match goals.

Impressively, the visitors have netted in all of their Bundesliga away games this season (W6, D6, L3), and are the division’s highest away scorers on average goals per game, registering 2.53 goals per road trip. However, they’ve also kept just one away clean sheet this Bundesliga campaign.

Julian Nagelsmann cannot count on Dennis Geiger who is struggling with a groin injury, while Benjamini Hubner (back) and Joelinton (ankle) are questionable to feature on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Andrej Kramaric has netted six goals across his last seven Bundesliga matches – four arrived before half-time
  • None of Hoffenheim’s away league matches have been goalless at half-time this term
  • All six of Hoffenheim’s Bundesliga away victories have come by a two-goal margin or larger

Gladbach won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L2) including one of the last three (D2), while the Foals were victorious in two of the past five meetings at Borussia-Park. The reverse fixture ended 0-0 this season and we had four draws in the last eight between these rivals and even though the share of points will not be enough for either side, I am going with a draw in this one.

MY PICK: Draw (+300)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even eight out of the last 11 H2H duels produced four or more goals and despite the fact that the previous clash ended without goals, I expect to see a classic shootout here. I rarely play over 3.5 goals and I usually opt for BTTS and Over 2.5 instead, but this time around, I am going with at least four goals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2-2 or 3-3 at the end of the game.

MY PICK: Over 3.5 (-115)

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