Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 20 – Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich (2/2/19)

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The Bavarians are six points behind the league leaders Dortmund and they cannot afford to drop points here if they want to stay in the race for the title, while the hosts are chasing Champions League football and they are eager to get a positive result here. The game between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich will take place at the BayArena on February 2nd, 2019.

BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs. BAYERN MUNICH

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Three-Way: 1: Leverkusen +450; X: +350 Draw; 2: Bayern -182 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1: Leverkusen -104; Bayern -103

Total 3.5 goals: Over +110; Under -139

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Having won five of their last seven competitive matches (W5, L2), Bayer Leverkusen look to have hit a good run of form at just the right time. Here, they welcome second-placed Bayern Munich hoping to avoid defeat against any top-six Bundesliga side for the first time this season (L6).

A 1-0 defeat to Monchengladbach in Leverkusen’s last outing at the BayArena was their first defeat in their previous six at home (W4, D1, L1 – in all competitions). A key aspect to their success has been an ability to start better than their opponents – Leverkusen is yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes of any Bundesliga home game this season.

Leverkusen bounced back in the following tilt with Wolfsburg on the road and beat the Wolves 3-0 thanks to goals from Kai Havertz, Kevin Volland, and Julian Brandt and now they are in the 9th position in Bundesliga with 27 points, seven behind RB Leipzig who is currently sitting in the 4th place that leads to the UCL next year.

Peter Bosz cannot count on Joel Pohjanpalo who is still out with an ankle injury but the rest of the squad is healthy and at the coach’s disposal for the upcoming tilt with Bayern Munich.

Betting Trends:

  • With three goals in his previous three Bundesliga matches, Leverkusen’s Kai Havertz is a man in form
  • There have been exactly three-match goals in three of Leverkusen’s last five Bundesliga games

BAYERN MUNICH

In hot pursuit of Dortmund, Bayern hasn’t tasted league defeat since a 3-2 loss in November at the hands of the leaders (W7, D1). That result kick-started Bayern’s revival and despite being five points worse off than they were at this stage last season, nobody has picked up more Bundesliga away points so far than Bayern (24). Notably, they have scored two or more in each of their last seven away league matches.

Bayern has not lost any of their last eight competitive fixtures against Leverkusen (W6, D2). Furthermore, across the last four H2Hs, a combined eight goals have been scored in the opening 20 minutes.

The Bavarians are on a seven-game winning run and their latest “victim” was Stuttgart who suffered a 4-1 loss at the Allianz Arena. Thiago Alcantara opened the scoring in the 5th minute and although the visitors responded through Anastasios Donis in the 26th, the hosts scored three more goals in the second half. Christian Gentner scored an own goal in the 55th minute, Leon Goretzka made it 3-1 in the 71st, while Robert Lewandowski set the final score with six minutes to go, having missed the penalty earlier in the game.

Niko Kovac will be without Corentin Tolisso (knee), while Arjen Robben (thigh) and Franck Ribery (muscle) are listed as doubtful for this clash and Kovac might opt to keep them out of the action until the Bavarians face Liverpool in the Champions League.

Betting Trends:

  • Highly-praised Leon Goretzka has three goals in his previous two matches for Bayern Munich
  • Bayern scored the opener in 84% of their league fixtures
  • Four of Bayern’s last five Bundesliga wins have been by a margin of two or more goals
  • There have been over 2.5 match goals in 74% of Bayern’s league fixtures

Bayern won seven out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L1) including the last four, while the Bavarians were victorious in the past two meetings at the BayArena. Leverkusen is without a win in front of their own fans in the last four duels here but they managed to keep Bayern to a scoreless draw on two occasions in that span. I don’t think it’s going to finish 0-0 but with the Champions League around the corner, Bayern could decide to rest some of their key players and that could be a chance for the hosts to win a point, and I am going with a draw in this one.

MY PICK: Draw (+350)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Each of the last four H2H meetings produced four or more goals and both teams scored in all four encounters including the previous tilt at the BayArena that ended 6-2 for Bayern in the DFB Pokal. I don’t expect to see eight goals in this one but I am sure the teams will combine for at least three and there will be goals on each end.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-138)

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