Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots – Free Betting Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 01:00 pm BUFFALO (5-9) at NEW ENGLAND (9-5)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
103BUFFALO 45 15.4 23.8 5-9 5-9-0 6-8-0 124.6 168.8 293.4 104.8 187.4 292.2
104NEW ENGLAND -13 26.7 22.1 9-5 8-6-0 5-9-0 116.6 278.4 395 116.3 256.6 372.9

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are set to go at it on the turf at Gillette Stadium. This AFC East game will get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Betting Preview

In this Sunday AFC game, New England is getting picked as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Bills are also receiving +475 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -725. If one squad gets out in front in the early stages it will result in a nice betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

With the line opening at -13 and the O/U set originally at 45.5, odds have swayed a bit.

The Bills are 5-9 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.0 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 6-8.

The Patriots have lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 8-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 5-9.

The Bills have gone just 5-9 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 9-5 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.

The Bills enter after a 14-13 win over Detroit last week. Josh Allen completed only 13 passes on 26 attempts for 204 yards and one touchdown. Keith Ford (only 46 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Marcus Murphy (35 yards on 11 carries) provided the running attack while Isaiah McKenzie (six receptions, 53 yards) and Robert Foster (four catches, 108 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

New England just lost a 17-10 game to Pittsburgh in Week 15. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Steelers to run for 158 yards on 25 rush attempts. Jaylen Samuels put up a productive outing in the win for Pittsburgh, recording 142 rushing yards on 19 attempts, along with 30 yards on two catches. For New England, Tom Brady completed 25-of-36 passes for 279 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (59 rushing yards on 13 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Julian Edelman (seven receptions, 90 yards) and James White (five catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Buffalo has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 43.7 percent. The Bills have produced 125 rush yards/game (including 158 per game versus East opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Pats are logging 117 rush yards per game (136 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.

Judging by the numbers this season, it seems like the Bills should hold an advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has logged 4.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Patriots have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.0 to opponents.

The Bills offense has logged 189 yards per game in the air overall (249 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Pats have produced 288 pass yards per game (309.8 against AFC competition) and have 24 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 105 rush yards and 201 pass yards per game. The New England D has allowed 271.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.33 to opposing QBs, while the Pats have allowed a 6.10 ANY/A.

Allen is up to 1,427 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 114-of-217 attempts with six passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Allen’s got a 4.32 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.80 over the last two outings.

Expect Allen to attack all areas of the New England secondary. Robert Foster (0 receiving yards and two touchdowns), Isaiah McKenzie (124 yards) and Josh Allen (0 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.

On the other sideline, Tom Brady has connected on 311-of-470 passes for 3,621 yards, 21 TDs and nine INTs. Brady’s ANY/A sits at 7.22 for the year and 7.94 across his last two outings.

We expect the New England offense to mix it up in this one. Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel have combined to account for 420 total yards and two touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Free NFL Pick

SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Patriots, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes

The Buffalo defense has sacked opposing QBs 31 times this year. New England has registered 26 sacks.

The New England offense has lost six fumbles this season while Buffalo has lost eight.

The Bills offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have accounted for eight such plays.

The Buffalo defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New England has given up eight such plays.

The Buffalo offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New England has created eight such runs.

Both defenses have allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Bills have given up 51 running plays of 10+ yards while the Patriots have given up 53 such plays.

The Over/Under for New England’s last outing was set at 55. The under cashed in that 17-10 defeat to Pittsburgh.

Over its last three games, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three contests, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Buffalo’s last game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-13 win over Detroit.

As a team, Buffalo has produced 5.0 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.3 over its last two.

New England has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its past two.

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