Perhaps the most interesting game of Week 6 in the NFL will be played in Kansas City on Sunday, October 16, and here you can read the best Bills vs. Chiefs betting pick and odds.

Both Buffalo and Kansas City are looking to improve to a 5-1 record when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills are -2.5 favorites on Bovada Sportsbook, while the total is set at 54 points. These conference rivals have met twice in 2021, and each team recorded a win, but the Chiefs got a more important one in the playoffs at home.

Bills destroyed the Steelers at home

The Buffalo Bills (4-1, 3-1-1 ATS) returned home from a two-game road trip and dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3. The game was decided in the first half when the Bills created a 28-point lead and later relaxed offensively and scored only one TD, but the defense was sturdy and didn’t allow Pittsburgh to score. Buffalo was much better in total yards (552-364), and even though Pittsburgh had more possession (36:08-23:52), that didn’t help the visitors to avoid a massive defeat.

Josh Allen was fantastic as he sliced up Pittsburgh’s secondary with 20 completions out of 31 for 424 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Allen also led the team in rushing yards with 42 on five carries, while James Cook scored the only rushing TD. Through the air, Buffalo was relentless. Gabe Davis led all the receivers with 171 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions. Stefon Diggs added 102 yards and a score on eight catches, while Khalil Shakir also found the end zone. On defense, Tyrel Dodson and Kaiir Elam combined for 21 tackles.  

S Micah Hyde (neck) and LB Andre Smith (suspension) are out. TE Dawson Knox (hamstring), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), S Jordan Poyer (ribs), and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are questionable to feature on Sunday against Kansas City.

Chiefs came from behind to edge the Raiders at home

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 2-3 ATS) erased a 17-point deficit a secured a narrow 30-29 home victory over the divisional foes Las Vegas Raiders. It was a wild final quarter; the Chiefs scored a TD to take a 30-23 lead but failed to convert a two-point conversion after which the Raiders scored a TD and failed to convert a two-point attempt and fell short in the end.

Patrick Mahomes was fantastic as he completed 29 of 43 passes for 292 yards and four touchdowns. Each of his TD passes went to Travis Kelce, who collected just 25 yards on seven receptions but was lethal in the end zone. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman combined for 163 receiving yards on ten catches. On the ground, Jerick McKinnon led the team with 53 yards on eight attempts. When it comes to defense, Darius Harris recorded a game-high ten tackles.

LB Willie Gay Jr. is out due to suspension. K Harrison Butker (ankle) is questionable to face the Bills on Sunday.



  • 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 games overall
  • 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
  • 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight vs. AFC rivals

Kansas City:

  • 0-4 ATS in the last four vs. AFC opponents
  • 1-4 ATS in the last five games following a straight-up win
  • 0-4 ATS in the last four games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick  

The two Super Bowl contenders are facing each other and this is a game that could go either way, so it’s very risky to bet on it. These are the two most efficient offenses in the NFL and the top 5 pass offenses, which is enough to have a spectacle on Sunday. I like how both teams responded to surprising defeats in Week 3, but it seems that the Bills have more stability. The combination of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs is unstoppable and I am giving the visitors a slight advantage because of it.

Pick: Take the Bills at -2.5 (-110)

The Total

Kansas City is scoring 31.8 ppg, while Buffalo averages 30.4 ppg. The Bills have the best pass offense in the NFL which is averaging 324.0 ypg, while the Chiefs average 267.2 ypg. These teams have average run offenses and will likely neglect it, which is excellent news for the bettors who prefer betting on Over. Expect a lot of passes (completed, hopefully) and passing touchdowns in this encounter. Over is 5-1 in the last six H2H meetings in Kansas City; Over is 8-2 in the Bills’ previous ten games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game, while Over is 10-3 in the Chiefs’ last 13 games overall.

Pick: Go Over 53.5 points (-120)