Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Falcons and Rockets. The game is starting at 2:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Rockets at Savage Arena in Toledo, OH. Get ready to place your bets! This Mid-American conference matchup has an over/under of 157.5 points, and Toledo is favored to win by -5.5 at home vs. Bowling Green.


The Pick: Toledo Rockets -5.5

This game will be played at Savage Arena at 2:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Rockets.
  • Not only will Toledo pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 157.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Will the Falcons Defense Show Up on the Road?

As the underdog, Bowling Green is 3-3 this season. They have a 14-5 overall record and have won four straight games. On the road, the Falcons are 3-2 this season and have gone 3-2 in their last five road games.

Bowling Green’s average scoring margin on the road this season is -3.4 points per game. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.5 points per game. They have gone 9-2 at home this season.

As the underdog this season, Bowling Green has gone 3-3 vs. the spread and they are 8-8 overall. On the road, the Falcons are 2-3 vs. the spread this season and their last 10 road ATS mark is just 2-8. However, they have gone 3-0 vs. the spread in their last 3 games as the underdog.

Today’s over/under line of 157.5 is higher than the average OU line in Bowling Green’s games this season (147.2). So far, 15 of their games have finished with less points than today’s over/under line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 162 points and their over/under record for the season is 10-6.

Bowling Green recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 84 points against Western Michigan. This output exceeded their season average of 76.8 points per game. Marcus Hill was the leading scorer for the Falcons, putting up 28 points. In addition, DaJion Humphrey contributed 13 points.

Currently, the Falcons’ defense holds the 125th rank in the nation, allowing 70.8 points per game. In their previous game vs. Western Michigan, the Broncos finished with a field goal percentage of 39% and a total of 79 points vs. Bowling Green.

Does Toledo Stand a Chance at Home?

Entering this game, Toledo has a record of 12-7, including a 6-1 mark in Mid-American Conference play. The Rockets have been strong at home this season, going 7-4, and they have won three straight games at home.

Overall, Toledo has been the favorite in 11 of its 19 games, going 8-3 in those contests. The Rockets have gone 5-3 on the road, with an average scoring margin of +2.8 points per game.

As the favorite, Toledo has struggled vs. the spread this season, going 4-7. Their ATS record at home this year is 4-7, and over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are just 3-7. In their last 3 home games, the Rockets are 0-3 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 157.5 is slightly higher than the average over/under line in Toledo’s games this season (155.4). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 144 points.

Toledo is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 89 points vs. Northern Illinois. This figure is more than their season average of 78.7 points per game. Offensively, the Rockets have a season long field goal percentage of 47%, which is 81st in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 74th in percentage and 312nd in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Rockets’ defense is positioned 249th in the country, permitting 76.3 points per game. The Toledo defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 73 points and allowed Northern Illinois to connect on 6 threes.