Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick 09/23/19

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Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays will play host to the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to New England Sports Network to catch the game.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Tampa Bay (-185) as the favorite over Boston (+175). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. There’s a runline of Red Sox +1.5 (-125) and Rays -1.5 (+105) for this matchup.

The Rays are 92-64 straight up (SU) and 79-76 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much for gamblers, gaining 1.2 units for moneyline bettors while earning 7.3 units ATS. Tampa Bay has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Red Sox have gone 81-74 SU this year and are 64-90 ATS. They’re down 27.3 units for moneyline gamblers and 34.7 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Tampa Bay games have an over/under record of 76-71-8 in 2019. Boston has been a great over bet with a total record of 86-65-3.

Jhoulys Chacin will get the nod for the visiting Red Sox. The right-handed Chacin is 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA and 93 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Rays this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Rays are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Blake Snell (6-7, 4.19 ERA), who has 140 strikeouts and 35 walks as well as a 1.22 WHIP. Snell is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Boston this year.

As a unit, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 70 divisional games, Rays starters have an ERA of 3.58 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.29.

The Tampa Bay hitters have put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .246/.322/.401 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows have led the Rays’ hitters this year. Pham is hitting .276/.372/.452 with 20 home runs, 66 RBIs, 75 runs and 23 stolen bases, and Meadows is hitting .289 with 32 homers, 88 RBIs and 80 runs.

In the other dugout, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.56 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.33, along with a K/9 of 10.54.

Red Sox hitters have slashed .268/.341/.467 on their way to 5.5 runs scored per game this season, including 5.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Boston’s offensive production has been sparked by third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who’ve collectively belted 63 home runs. Devers is slashing .307/.359/.551 with 31 home runs, 112 RBIs and 123 runs scored, while Bogaerts (.304/.380/.551) has produced 32 homers, 110 RBIs and 106 runs scored.

The Red Sox have lost 15.2 units and are 17-32 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 27 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Rays have netted 6.9 units and are 49-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 51 of those games, compared to 43 that went under.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

Both teams have tallied 15 extra-base hits over their last five contests.

The Red Sox have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

The Red Sox have an OPS of .808 this season, including an OPS of .788 against left-handed pitchers. The Rays’ OPS stands at .759 overall and .754 against lefties.

Boston has posted 20.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.0 over its last five.