The 2021 American League Championship Series starts Friday, October 15, at Minute Maid Park in Houston, so we have prepared the best Red Sox vs. Astros betting pick and odds for Game 1 with the first pitch at 8:07 PM ET.
The Astros opened at -155 to win this best-of-seven series, while the Red Sox sit at +135 on Bookmaker Sportsbook. Houston is a -135 moneyline fave for the opening clash at home, and the totals are listed at 8.0 runs.
The Sawx aim for another upset
Rarely who expected the Boston Red Sox to make it to the postseason, but they did it by winning 92 games and earning the top wild card in the American League. After a convincing 6-2 victory over the New York Yankees in the wild-card game, the Sawx pulled off a huge upset and eliminated the reigning AL champions, the Tampa Bay Rays, in the ALDS in four games.
Through their five outings in the postseason, the Red Sox have scored 32 runs on an excellent .328/.372/.547 batting line. They’ve smacked 63 hits and a whopping 11 home runs in the process, while Boston’s pitching staff has compiled a 4.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a .207 batting average against.
Chris Sale will get the starting call Friday, and the 32-year-old southpaw is 5-3 with a 2.20 ERA in nine career starts against Houston. He hasn’t met the Astros since 2019, and in four starts and 27 innings of work at Minute Maid Park, Chris has allowed 15 runs (ten earned) on 21 hits and five walks.
Sale returned from Tommy John surgery in August and started nine times this past regular season. He was 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 52/12 K/BB ratio across 42.2 frames of work.
The Astros made it to their fifth straight ALCS
Many have routed against the Houston Astros because of their signal-stealing scandal, but Dusty Baker’s boys won the AL West and made it to the postseason once more. This will be their fifth consecutive ALCS appearance which is quite an accomplishment.
The Astros beat the Chicago White Sox in the 2021 ALDS in four games. After a 12-6 defeat in Game 3, Houston stepped up and trounced the ChiSox 10-1 as a slight road fave in Game 4. Throughout the White Sox series, the Astros have scored 31 runs on a .288/.371/.432 batting line while registering a 4.63 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and a .291 batting average against.
Framber Valdez will get the nod Friday, and the 27-year-old left-hander is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in a couple of career starts and relief appearances against the Red Sox. He’s met Boston twice this past regular season and has emerged victorious on both occasions, allowing only two earned runs across 14.1 innings of work.
Valdez has gone 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts in 2021. Over his last five regular-season outings, Framber has recorded a 3.94 ERA and 4.99 FIP through 29.2 innings of work.
- 7-1 in the last eight games overall
- 4-1 in the last five games on the road
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Pick
Both Chris Sale and Framber Valdez have had a rough time this postseason, so picking the winner in this one seems like a tough job. Sale got pounded in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing five earned runs while getting just three outs, though the Red Sox eventually smashed Tampa Bay 14-6. On the other side, Valdez pitched 4.1 frames in a 9-4 win to the White Sox in Game 2. He yielded four earned runs on seven hits and a walk.
The Astros outlasted the Sawx 5-2 in their 2021 regular-season series. Both teams have mashed the ball through the division series, especially the Red Sox, so I’ll take my chances with the red-hot Boston offense.
Pick: Take Boston Red Sox at +125
Six of Houston’s last seven games went in the over, as well as four of Boston’s previous six. I’ve mentioned how good they were offensively in the ALDS, so give me the over on the totals.
Framber Valdez hasn’t been at his best lately, while the Astros bullpen has recorded a poor 4.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a .278 batting average against in four games against the White Sox. On the other side, the Red Sox bullpen has a sharp 3.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a .194 batting average against this postseason, but it will have a tall task to slow down the loaded Astros lineup.
Pick: Go over 8.0 runs at -115