The 2022 MLB season continues Saturday, June 25, with the middle clash of a three-game American League series at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, so here’s the best Red Sox vs. Guardians betting pick.
According to Bookmaker Sportsbook, the Guardians are -145 favorites to win this battle in front of the home fans. Friday night’s opener has been excluded from the analysis, while Boston has won six of its previous eight encounters with Cleveland.
The Red Sox have played very well in June
The Boston Red Sox carried a 39-31 record into Friday’s game at Progressive Field. They were looking for their fifth consecutive victory, and the Red Sox have played at a high level so far this month, going 16-4 through their first 20 contests in June.
Boston has scored 98 runs in that 20-game stretch while hitting .259/.328/.409. On the pitching side of things, the Sawx have compiled an excellent 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .222 opposing batting average.
Rookie Josh Winckowski will get the starting call Saturday. The 23-year-old right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 9/5 K/BB ratio in three starts (14.2 innings) this season. Winckowski will search for his third straight win after yielding a couple of earned runs on 11 hits over his previous two appearances.
The Guardians continue their battle for the top of the AL Central
The 36-29 Cleveland Guardians were tied with the Minnesota Twins for the top spot in the AL Central on Friday. They just won a three-game series at Target Field in Minneapolis, although the Guardians suffered a 1-0 defeat in Thursday’s closer.
Cleveland has gone 15-5 through its first 20 games in June, scoring 92 runs on a .260/.311/.394 slash line. The Guardians’ pitching staff has done a good job in that stretch, recording a 3.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .237 batting average against.
Shane Bieber will take the hill Saturday, and the 2020 Cy Young Award winner is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, and 84/18 K/BB ratio in 13 starts (78 innings) this season. Bieber hasn’t been charged for a loss since May 22. He’s amassed a 2.23 ERA, 1.96 FIP, and 38/4 K/BB ratio across his previous five starts.
- 11-3 in the last 14 games overall
- 8-2 in the last ten games at home
- 5-0 in Shane Bieber’s last five starts
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Pick
Although the current Red Sox lineup has 13 hits in 39 at-bats against Shane Bieber, I’m expecting the Guardians’ ace to make the difference in this game. Bieber has been outstanding in the last few weeks, while the Guardians’ offense is way more dangerous when hitting the righties, so give me the Guardians at the moneyline odds.
Cleveland has an awful 77 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers and a 108 OPS+ against the right-handed pitchers, so Josh Winckowski could be in trouble. The rookie right-hander is not missing a lot of bats and owns a .457 expected slugging percentage.
Pick: Take Cleveland Guardians at -145
Both teams can rely on their relievers, though the Red Sox’s bullpen has an underwhelming 4.76 ERA in the last ten days and 28.1 innings of work. On the other side, the Guardians’ bullpen has accounted for six wins and a 2.70 ERA across 33.1 frames in that span.
Boston is arguably a better offensive team than Cleveland, but the Guardians have the advantage on the mound in this duel. I lean toward the under even though Josh Winckowski is a wild card.
Pick: Go under 8.5 runs at -120