Expect a low-scoring game when the Boston Celtics (42-21) and Indiana Pacers (39-25) clash at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Boston is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 215 points. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 10, 2020.
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Preview
The last time the Celtics played, they lost a close one to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 105-104, despite being 6.5-point favorites. Boston’s Gordon Hayward put together a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 24 points on 9-for-19 shooting. Oklahoma City did a great job of making free throws (25-34; 73.5 percent). Boston, meanwhile, held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.3 (below their season average of 19.3). The two teams combined to score 209 points, which came in under the projected point total of 216.5.
The Pacers will look to keep it rolling after narrowly defeating the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 112-109, as 6.5-point underdogs. With 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting, Domantas Sabonis led Indiana in scoring. Indiana’s 0.568 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas, who had a mark of 0.505. The Pacers’ mark was above their season average of 0.533. The two squads combined to record 221 points, which was just over the projected point total of 219.
These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 239 points, well over the projected point total of 210.5. The Pacers won 122-117, covering as 2-point favorites. Indiana did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (30-36; 83.3 percent). Boston, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (20.5 vs. 12.2). Kemba Walker scored a game-high 44 points.
Of Boston’s 63 games, 32 have finished under the projected point total, while 34 of Indiana’s 64 games have finished over the O/U total. Both teams have solid straight up (SU) records (42-21 for Boston; 39-25 for Indiana), but the Celtics have the edge against the spread (ATS). Boston is 37-25-1 ATS, while the Pacers are 33-28-3.
The offense of Indiana (16th in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 108.8) will battle against the elite defense of Boston (fourth in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 104.9). The Celtics figure to have the advantage on that end of the court.
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over
The Celtics rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.9) while the Pacers rank 14th (47.8).
Indiana ranks third in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Boston ranks seventh (7.0).
Boston ranks 16th in second chance points per game (13.2) while Indiana ranks 27th (11.5).
Boston allows the fourth-fewest points off turnovers per game (14.6) while Indiana ranks fifth (14.6).
Boston is 20-10-1 ATS on the road with 17 unders and 14 overs.
At home, Indiana is 14-15-2 ATS with 16 overs and 15 unders.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Indiana is 11-2 and Boston is 12-3.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Celtics are 41-14 and the Pacers are 39-16.
The Celtics average 15.5 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Pacers rank 17th in fast break points allowed per game (13.6).
Indiana ranks fifth in assists per game (26.0) while Boston ranks 25th (22.9).
The Celtics rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (34.2) while the Pacers rank last (27.5).
The Celtics average 46.0 rebounds per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Pacers rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (44.7).
Indiana ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.1) while Boston ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
Indiana is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in its last five games.
Across its past five games, Boston is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 2.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 108.0 points per game (5.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.0 points per game (3.2 above their season average).