The Broncos and Aztecs are set to face off at 10:00 ET on FS1. The Aztecs will host the game at Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 137.5 points, and San Diego State is favored by -7.5 to win at home against Boise State.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boise State Broncos +7.5

This game will be played at Viejas Arena at 10:00 ET on Friday, March 8th.

WHY BET THE BOISE STATE BRONCOS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Aztecs.
  • Even though we have San Diego State winning straight-up, we like Boise State at +7.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 137.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Will the Broncos Exceed Expectations on the Road?

Boise State comes into this game as a 7.5-point underdog, and they have gone 5-5 as the underdog this season. The Broncos have gone 7-5 on the road this season, and they have won their last two games away from home.

Over their last ten road games, Boise State has gone 7-3, and they are coming off a 76-66 loss to Nevada. So far this season, the Broncos have gone 21-9, including a 12-5 record in Mountain West Conference play.

Boise State has an ATS record of 16-13 this season, going 6-6 vs. the spread on the road. In their last 10 games as the underdog, the Broncos have a mark of 5-5.

On the season, the over/under record in Boise State games is 16-13 and today’s line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (139.6). Over their last three games, the over/under record in their games is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 145 points.

The Boise State offense is coming off a game where they scored 66 points against Nevada. They posted a field goal percentage of 41.7% and connected on 6 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Tyson Degenhart with 15 points. Max Rice also added 15 points for the Broncos.

This season, the Boise State defense has been impressive, holding the 50th position in the country while permitting an average of 66.9 points per contest. The Boise State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 76 points and allowed Nevada to connect on 6 threes.

Can the Aztecs Live Up to the Hype at Home?

San Diego State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season, and they will be looking to extend their home winning streak to 15 games. So far, the Aztecs have been favored in 21 of their 30 games, going 18-3 in those matchups.

Over their last 10 games at home, San Diego State has been unbeatable, going 10-0. Their average scoring margin at home this season is +12.9 points per game.

San Diego State has an ATS record of 12-16 this season and they are 8-6 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Aztecs have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in San Diego State’s games this season (141.1). In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3 and the average scoring total in those games is 122 points.

In their recent matchup, the San Diego State offense ended with 58 points against UNLV. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 28.1% and made 11 threes. In terms of offense, the Aztecs have a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, putting them 225th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 317th in percentage and 223rd in three-pointers made.

San Diego State’s defense has been playing well, ranking 30th nationally, with 65.8 points allowed per game. San Diego State will look once again to perform well on defense, holding UNLV to just 40% shooting in their most recent game.