Last Updated: 2017-06-13
Instead of a Tuesday Takeover show this week, host Adam Burke made up for Monday’s missed edition of The Bettor’s Box by releasing one on June 13. It was great to back to normal after a week of traveling that led to some old-school methods of recording and some slightly less detailed analysis, but this edition of the show completely made up for anything that felt below our usual standards last week.
We’ll be back on our normal schedule from here on out through the summer, as we look ahead to football season and going back to five days a week. Catch another edition of The Bettor’s Box on Thursday, with The Bettor’s Box and a Monday Mailbag on Monday and a Tuesday Takeover next Tuesday.
With some things to catch up on and a lot of series already started, Adam changed up the format a little bit for today’s show. He spent the first part of the broadcast talking about the three ballparks that he visited on his road trip that went through St. Louis, Kansas City, and Denver. Those that are looking for some summer trips can consider these ballparks and some of Adam’s thoughts about them, the city, and the surrounding areas.
Moving into the real reason that we’re all here – the best baseball betting analysis in the industry – Adam talked about some outliers based on three different standings metrics. Pythagorean Win-Loss Record, BaseRuns, and Third Order Win Percentage can all shed some light on the teams that are overachieving or underachieving at this stage of the game. A lot of teams crossed over all three metrics and these are teams that you can look to use to your advantage in the coming weeks for positive or negative regression.
Along with those teams that stand out, Adam also looked at some pitchers with ERA/xFIP discrepancies and talked about how we need to change our handicapping styles and look even deeper than normal to find those edges in the market. Line moves are still predictable based on ERA/xFIP, but outcomes and results seem to have gotten less predictable. We need to adjust and Adam talked about his plans to do just that.
Finally, a great listener question for the Monday Mailbag centered on first inning scoring and whether or not there’s an angle to play there. Adam found a lot of great information and shared it with our listeners, including some information that you probably haven’t considered on a great bet that can increase your bankroll.
Join us on Thursday for another edition of The Bettor’s Box.
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