Last Updated: 2017-12-01
When betting in week 13 of the National Football League there are plenty of things to consider. This is the time of year when many other storylines occupy the minds of bettors and they should. Recently we have coaches and quarterbacks on the hot seat as well as teams going through a serious transition.
Some teams like the New York Giants have given up on the season and benched starting quarterback Eli Manning. Other teams like the Kansas City Chiefs are clinging to playoff life after starting the season off like gangbusters. Then there are juggernauts like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots who keep on pushing along. While new teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, LA Rams, Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints are trying to prove that they belong in the top tier of the league.
With everything going on this could be one of the toughest times of the season to handicap football games which means the handicapper has to do everything in their power to try and beat the sharp lines. This means looking at what the public is betting and trying to find the best bets to go against on a weekly basis, which at times has been tough.
Home Sweet Home
If you are betting on underdogs at home that the public does not want to bet on, you have plenty of choices this week. Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, Tennessee, Jacksonville Arizona and Cincinnati are all at home this week and the public is betting the road team. Some home teams are favorites and some are underdogs but they all could provide value this week against the spread. Two other home underdogs make our list for the rest of the NFL picks to buy into if you want to go against the public this week.
Over Reaction On the Road
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and they have won all of their games of late by double digits so everyone is happy to bet on them. In fact they are so excited to bet on the eagles they don’t even care that they are on the road in one of the toughest places to play in the league. The Eagles opened as (-3) and have been bet up to (-5.5) as road chalk against the Seattle Seahawks. Over 74 percent of the bets are on the road team and that gives tremendous value to a home under on national television. Consider siding with Seattle in this game.
Fading the Top Pick is the Way to Go (Except Lately)
Fading the most popular pick is now starting to even out and after the most popular bet of the week covered again a week ago, the profit is all gone and we have evened out on the season. The San Francisco 49ers failed to get the backdoor cover against the Seattle Seahawks and the most popular bet of the week once covered again for Joe Public. This week could be much different however as the odds makers are adjusting to the public. It comes as no surprise that the most popular team this week is the New England Patriots on the road against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots opened up as (-9) point favorites and the sharps knew that may be a bit too high and they bet on that number pushing it down to (-7.5). Still over the key number of seven points, there is still value in backing the Bills at home as a divisional dog in week 13 of the NFL.
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