Betting on the Over/Under – Leicester City vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers 8/18/2018


Leicester didn’t play badly against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the opening match of the season, but in the end, they lost 2-1. The Foxes actually had more attempts at goal and kept the ball in their possession for 54%, but an early penalty for United and Luke Shaw’s lucky goal in the 83rd minute was too much for Claude Puel’s side to handle. Still, Jamie Vardy managed to soften the defeat in the second minute of injury time, and now the Foxes are hoping to bounce back in front of their own fans at the King Power Stadium.

Leicester has just one win in eight PL games now (W1, D1, L6), and they need to switch to a higher gear to improve on last season’s ninth-place finish (W12, D11, L15). The Foxes were an indifferent home side last season (W7, D6, L6), something they will need to address if they are to challenge for a spot in Europe. However, they had strong results against the promoted teams last season, winning four of six matches (W4, D1, L1).

On the other hand, Wolves returned to the Premier League after six years following their victorious campaign in the Championship. NunoEspírito Santo’s men scored the most goals, conceded the least and finished nine points ahead of their closest competition, Cardiff City. Backed by Chinese owners and with ties to super-agent Jorge Mendes, Wolves are expected to give as good as they get this season, and the coach and fans are hoping to stay in the top tier at the end of the season.

Wolverhampton opened the campaign with a 2-2 draw with Everton at home after being down twice, but thanks to the last year’s best player in the Championship, Ruben Neves, they stayed undefeated in the opener. The former Porto midfielder scored a great goal from a direct free-kick before recording an assist to Raul Jimenez late in the game, while Richarlison bagged a brace for the Toffees.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSISportsbook

Over 2.5 goals @ +110

Under 2.5 goals @ -125

Why bet on the Under?

Forty-two percent of Leicester’s home matches last season ended under 2.5 goals, as did 48% of Wolves’ away matches, but that certainly not guarantees they will produce under three goals this time around, especially after what we saw in their respective games last week. Still, Leicester has just one win in their last seven PL home matches, and have scored more than one goal in just one of those seven.

Why bet on the Over?

Wolves are playing a 3-4-3 formation so it is obvious that they will struggle to keep their net intact, which should be quite appealing for Leicester forwards such as Iheanacho, Gray, Ghezzal, and Vardy. On the other side, Espirito Santo has a big contingent of Portuguese players who know each other very well and I believe Jota, Neves, Moutinho, Costa, and the Mexican Jimenez can pose a real threat to Leicester’s keeper Kasper Schmeichel, so rather than the low-scoring affair, I expect plenty of action on both sides here.

Leicester vs. Wolves Betting Pick

Four out of the previous six H2H matches produced over 2.5 goals including the last two when both teams played in the Championship, five years ago. Considering their respective display in the opener, I expect the rivals to score at least a goal apiece, but I don’t think the tilt will end as a draw, so I am backing over on this one.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 goals (+110)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Jamie Vardy played only 30 minutes against Man United last week, but he proved his worth with a consolation goal and Puel should field him from the start this time around, so I believe the Englishman will find the gap between the trio of Wolves’ defenders to bag a goal at +120.