Last Updated: 2018-01-13
The German Bundesliga continues after a short winter break and the round 18 will be played over the weekend. This means that our over/under picks are also at display, so take a look at our tips and predictions for the Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg match.
Dortmund snapped the negative run of nine consecutive matches without a win with a pair of Bundesliga victories over Mainz and Hoffenheim, but they are eliminated out of the DFB Pokal after a 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich. After being knocked out of the Champions League as well, the Black and Yellows are one of the biggest favorites to win the Europa League, but they will likely focus on Bundesliga, where Dortmund is currently in the 3rd position. However, it is a bit crowded at the top (except at the very top where Bayern is looking uncatchable) as four teams including Dortmund have 28 points, so this match is quite important for the hosts as they cannot afford to drop points at Westfalenstadion.
On the other hand, Wolfsburg is without a league win in the previous three games, but they advanced to the ¼ finals of the DFB Pokal after defeating Nurnberg and will try to get to the European Football next season through the domestic cup. The Wolves have only three Bundesliga wins so far in 17 matches and league-high ten draws, but they are sitting in the 12th position with 19 points, just four points above the relegation zone. Martin Schmidt’ side proved that they are hard to beat, but they have been uninspiring away from home, so the hosts will have a decent chance to hand them a defeat on Sunday.
Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook
Over 3 goals @ -110
Under 3 goals @ -106
Why bet on the Under?
The only reason for playing on the under here is Wolfsburg’s inefficiency on the road as the Wolves scored just seven goals in eight away matches so far. Wolfsburg failed to find the net in the previous two away games, while they allowed only one in return, so it is obvious that Schmidt’s men are not among the most attractive sides in the league, at least when it comes to road tilts.
Why bet on the Over?
Now, there are plenty of more reasons for playing on the over in this clash, but the most important one is a much better situation at Dortmund regarding health as some key players like Mario Gotze and Andre Schurrle are back into contention. Although the Black and Yellows are still missing Marco Reus, Maximilian Phillip, and Marcel Schmelzer, Peter Stöger is delighted to have a strong attack consisting of Aubameyang, Pulisic, Kagawa, Yarmolenko, and now Gotze and Schurrle. With such a force in the attack, Dortmund can outscore any team in Germany, while it is crucial to note Pierre-EmerickAubameyang’s form against Wolfsburg as the Gabon international scored five goals in the last five matches with the Wolves, so he’s definitely a player to watch on this one. The striker is the second-top scorer in the Bundesliga with 13 goals, two behind Robert Lewandowski, but the former St. Etienne’s forward has a game in hand and could even surpass the Polish international with a hat-trick here.
Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg Betting Pick
Dortmund won the previous five H2H duels, scoring a whopping 18 goals and allowing just three in return, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finding the net on three or more occasions on Sunday. The Black and Yellows are certainly not boring team when it comes to home matches as the last ten at Westfalenstadion ended with both teams scoring, and even though Wolfsburg is having difficulties to score away from home, the visitors can exploit Dortmund’s defensive struggles and bag one or two.
This matchup failed to produce three or more goals only three times in the past 20 H2H meetings, which is a great sign for goals on Sunday, while the last four clashes in Dortmund gave us astonishing 17 goals, more than four per game. Wolfsburg scored six out of those 17 goals, so we cannot say that they are hopeless at Westfalenstadion, and any potential goal from the visitors here will boost our chances to earn money by playing over three goals.
MY PICK: Over 3 goals (-110)
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