Betting on the Over/Under – Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia 2/4/2018

Last Updated: 2018-02-02

This weekend is full of exciting matches in the Spanish La Liga, but one clash stands out as the second-placed Atletico Madrid welcomes third-placed Valencia at Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday, February 4th, 2018. The hosts are set as -204 favorites, and it seems like the bookies have underestimated the Bats in this one, while the price on Over/Under 2.5 Goals is set at -128/+107, so the markets are quite inviting if you like to bet on goals.

Team News, Updates and Facts

ATLETICO MADRID had a turbulent couple of weeks as they were beaten by Sevilla in both legs of the Spanish Copa del Rey Quarter-Finals (2-1 and 3-1), while they’ve earned seven points in three La Liga matches, beating Las Palmas 3-0 at home, and Eibar 1-0 on the road, and playing a disappointing 1-1 draw with Girona in front of the home fans. Atleti are still in the second spot of the La Liga table with 46 points and a 32:9 goal difference, eleven points behind the leader Barcelona, but six points ahead of their next opponent who’s in the third spot, and eight points in front of the city-rival Real Madrid in the fourth spot. Atletico’s defense is the best in the league, allowing just two goals in the last five La Liga matches, while they’ve conceded only four goals in ten games on the home soil thus far. Although their attacking play is not on the same level as their defensive work, Antoine Griezmann managed to score three goals in the last three matches.

VALENCIA will be on the other side of the pitch, and the Bats’ form is descending recently, losing two La Liga matches in a row, including a shocking 2-1 defeat at Las Palmas two weeks ago. Meanwhile, they were beaten 1-0 by Barcelona in the first leg of the Spanish Copa del Rey Semi-Finals, so the Bats are traveling to Madrid with a lot of worries on their minds. They’ve lost three out of the last five La Liga matches on the road, keeping the clean sheet just once in the process, while their top goalscorer in the La Liga Simone Zaza (10 goals in 18 appearances) hasn’t found the net in eight straight matches in all competitions. The Bats are still sitting at the third spot of the La Liga table with 40 points and a 42:25 goal difference, just two points in front of Real Madrid in the fourth, and three points ahead of Villarreal in the fifth spot.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 2.5 Goals @ -128

Under 2.5 Goals @ +107

Why Bet on the Under?

Diego Simeone’s cautious approach regardless who’s on the other side of the pitch should be the main reason why you should consider betting on the under in this clash. His target is always the same – break the deadlock first, and then keep the lead with the exceptional defensive work. Atletico Madrid has won six matches this season with a 1-0 final result, 15 out of their 21 La Liga matches was finished in the under, while at Wanda Metropolitano we saw more than two goals in one game just twice.

Why Bet on the Over?

Unlike Atletico Madrid, Valencia’s matches are quite efficient with 3.2 goals per game on the average, while 14 out of their 21 La Liga games were ended in the over. The Bats couldn’t keep the clean sheet for nine matches in a row, so their defense is not something you can rely on, while their previous three encounters away from home had more than two goals in the total.

Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia Over/Under Betting Pick

If you check out the Sportsbooks, you’ll notice that the bookies are expecting at least two goals in this clash, probably due to Valencia’s poor form in the last few weeks, but I don’t think we will see an open flow game on Sunday, as Diego Simeone’s boys rather like to play cautiously. In their first H2H meeting of the season at Mestalla, we saw a boring nil-nil draw with just a few proper scoring chances on both sides, so I believe we’ll get more of the same when these two teams face each other at Wanda Metropolitano.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 Goals (+107)

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