Often times people, myself included, make bets on high-profile teams that tend to score lots of runs. Or, points if we’re talking about any other sport, which we might as well be. In the NFL people bet on New England week after week. In College Football the majority of the tickets are on Alabama. But, you pay dearly for that and often times aren’t putting yourself in the best position to win bets.
You’ve all heard the term “fade”, and people want to “fade” the public. That may well be a profitable thing to do, but the one problem I have with that is that not everyone is reading the same lines at the same times of day with the same ticket counts. That mean, almost without exception, that it’s not that simple to tell where the public money actually is. And, at times what appears to be public money is nothing more than “setup” money thrown out by betting syndicates to move a line, knowing full well they’re coming back to take the other side at a better price later. So, there’s that.
But, if you’re like a lot of people that want to do much of their own work, sometimes it’s simply easier to find the team we don’t want to bet on. More than any other sport, baseball is full of streaky teams that are doing one or two things poorly for a given stretch. Of course those things regress, but you want to bet on those teams before that happens.
Here are some examples I use. The Cincinnati Reds’ pitching staff is currently holding teams to a .083 batting average with runners in scoring position. That’s simply unheard of, but a very big reason the Reds are 7-2 as of this writing. On the offensive side of the plate, Arizona is hitting .348 WITH runners in scoring position! That won’t last, but clearly it’s why they’re a money-making team at the moment. The Royals are hitting .154 with runners in scoring position, and of course that’s why they’re losing, or at least one big part of it.
The Royals have also issued more walks than any other pitching staff, so of course if you’re putting more men on base and not knocking your men in, you are going to lose. If you ask yourself why the Pirates and the Mariners are a combined 5-13, it’s probably because both staffs are allowing opposing lineups to hit .298 or better.
So, the next time you want to make a bet and don’t want to pay the premium or lay the chalk, think the other way around. Often times it’s not who’s going to win, it’s who’s going to lose.