Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Bears and Knights. The game is starting at 7:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Knights at Addition Financial Arena in Orlando, FL. Get ready to place your bets! In this Big 12 matchup, Baylor is favored by -3 vs. UCF. The over/under for the game is 139.5 points.

BAYLOR BEARS VS UCF KNIGHTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: UCF Knights +3

This game will be played at Addition Financial Arena at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, January 31st.

WHY BET THE UCF KNIGHTS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-67 in favor of the Knights.
  • Not only will UCF pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +3.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 139.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.

Will the Bears Win on the Road?

Despite a 2-game losing streak, Baylor has been strong as the favorite this season, going 12-1 in 13 games. On the road, the Bears have struggled, going just 2-4 this season, and they have lost two straight away from home.

On the season, Baylor is 14-5, and they have gone 3-2 in Big 12 play. They will look to get back on track after a 75-73 loss to Texas in their last game.

As the favorite, Baylor has gone 9-4 against the spread this season. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears have a mark of 7-3 vs. the spread. On the road, Baylor’s ATS record is 2-4 this year and they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Baylor’s games this season (149.4). So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 161 points.

Coming off their recent game, the Baylor offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Texas. Their field goal percentage for the game was 47.9%, and they made 11 threes. In terms of offense, the Bears have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, putting them 35th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 55th in percentage and 66th in three-pointers made.

In terms of defense, Baylor is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 71.1 points per game. So far, the Baylor defense is giving up an average of 7.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.8 times per game (469th).

Will the Knights Exceed Expectations at Home?

UCF will look to bounce back from their recent loss to Cincinnati when they host Baylor as three-point underdogs. The Knights are 12-7 overall this season, including a 10-3 mark at home. So far, they have gone 2-5 as the underdog.

Over their last ten home games, UCF is 7-3 and they have gone 4-1 in their last five. They are averaging a +15.3 scoring margin at home compared to -9.7 on the road.

Against the spread this season, UCF is 10-8-1. At home, they have an ATS mark of 8-4-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Knights have gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

On the season, the over/under record for UCF games is 9-10 and today’s line of 139.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games (139.1). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. However, over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 118 points and their OU record in their last 10 games is 2-8.

Most recently, the UCF offense finished with just 57 points vs. Cincinnati. For the game, they hit 8/18 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 36.2%. Jaylin Sellers is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 17.2 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Darius Johnson brings a PPG average of 12.6 into the game.

UCF’s defense has been playing well, ranking 32nd nationally, with 64.5 points allowed per game. So far, the UCF defense is giving up an average of 7.1 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.2 times per game (600th).