The MLB betting action goes on Sunday, July 3, 2022, with the American League battle from Target Field in Minneapolis, so we bring you the best Orioles vs. Twins betting pick along with the latest odds update on MyBookie Sportsbook. 

Baltimore and Minnesota will close down their seven-game regular-season series with a three-game set finale in Minneapolis, and the hosts are listed as -165 moneyline favorites. The Orioles are +152 road dogs, while the totals sit at 9.0 runs.  

The O’s lost four in a row                                       

The 35-44 Baltimore Orioles are on a four-game losing streak following Saturday’s 4-3 defeat at the Twins. They suffered a tough 3-2 loss in Friday’s clash at Target Field, as Jorge Lopez served a two-run homer to Byron Buxton in the bottom of the ninth. Lopez blew another save opportunity on Saturday, giving up two runs on four hits. 

Interestingly, the Orioles’ pitching staff has been outstanding in the last couple of weeks, compiling a pristine 2.50 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .214 opposing batting average. On the other side of the ball, the O’s have struggled a lot in that span, hitting just .217/.278/.384 with 13 home runs across 424 at-bats. 

Tyler Wells will get the starting call Sunday and aim for his fifth straight win. The 27-year-old right-hander is 6-4 with a solid 3.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts (69.2 innings) this season. Wells is striking out only 5.6 per nine innings, but he’s allowed just seven earned runs on 18 hits over his previous six starts and 32 innings of work. 

The Twins hope Devin Smeltzer continues to impress          

After going 13-15 in June, the Minnesota Twins started July with a narrow 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. Joe Ryan tossed seven frames of a one-run, two-hit ball while punching out seven, while Byron Buxton slugged his second game-ending homer of the season. 

Sonny Gray pitched five innings in Saturday’s victory to the O’s and yielded three earned runs on six hits and three walks. Jharel Cotton and Emilio Pagan kept Baltimore off the scoreboard in the final four frames, while Jose Miranda walked it off with an RBI single. 

Devin Smeltzer will take the hill Sunday, and the 26-year-old left-hander is 4-1 with a sturdy 2.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nine starts (50.1 innings) in 2022. Smeltzer had a meltdown in a 7-2 defeat at the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 17 when he surrendered seven runs on nine hits across 4.1 innings. But for the rest of the way, the former fifth-round pick has been terrific for the Twins. 

Trends:

Baltimore: 

  • 4-19 in the last 23 games against Minnesota 
  • 1-5 in the last six games overall 

Minnesota:

  • 14-2 in the last 16 home games against Baltimore 
  • 6-3 in the last nine games overall 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Pick 

I’ve mentioned the Orioles’ recent struggle at the plate. On the other side, the Twins are slashing a solid .254/.309/.416 with 20 home runs across their last 512 at-bats, so I’m expecting their offense to make the difference. 

It’s hard to trust the starting duo in this game. Devin Smeltzer’s FIP sits at 4.42 for the season, and the lefty ranks in the 39th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Tyler Wells, on the other side, has a 4.35 FIP and ranks in the 47th percentile in the expected slugging percentage. 

Pick: Take Minnesota Twins at -165                                    

The Total:

We shouldn’t see a proper high-scoring affair barring a meltdown on the mound. The Orioles’ bullpen has compiled a firm 2.85 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and .238 BABIP in the last two weeks and 41 innings pitched, while the Twins’ bullpen has recorded a 4.56 ERA across 47.1 frames in that span, albeit with a nice 2.38 BABIP. 

Hopefully, the Orioles ‘pen will bounce back from a couple of rough outings. Five of the previous six meetings between the O’s and Twins in 2022 have produced nine or fewer runs in total. 

Pick: Go under 9.0 runs at -115