After splitting a four-game set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in May, Baltimore and Minnesota start a three-game series at Target Field in Minneapolis on the first day of July, so here’s the best Orioles vs. Twins betting pick.
According to BetOnline Sportsbook, the Twins are -205 home favorites for Friday’s battle. The Orioles sit at +190 moneyline odds, and the totals are listed at 8.0 runs.
The Orioles hope to finish their ten-game road trip strong
The 35-42 Baltimore Orioles are on a ten-game road trip that started with three straight victories against the Chicago White Sox. Since then, the Orioles have gone 1-3, dropping a couple of games at Seattle along with a 9-2 thrashing of the Mariners and a 4-3 loss at the White Sox.
Baltimore owns the ninth-lowest scoring offense in the majors, tallying 4.08 runs per game on a .229/.297/.381 slash line (.242/.312/.394 league average). In their last six games, the O’s have scored 25 runs while hitting a poor .207/.279/.369 across 203 at-bats.
On the pitching side of things, the Orioles have compiled a shiny 2.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and .189 opposing batting average in that six-game stretch. Spenser Watkins will take the hill Friday in Minneapolis after tossing five innings of a one-run ball in a 6-2 victory at the White Sox this past Saturday. Watkins is now 1-1 with a pedestrian 5.14 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in nine starts (35 frames) in 2022.
The Twins lost three of their last four games
The Minnesota Twins fell to 43-36 on the season following Thursday’s 5-3 defeat at Progressive Field in Cleveland. They also suffered a narrow loss in a five-game set against the Cleveland Guardians, blowing a 3-1 lead in the closing battle. The Twins were still topping the AL Central, one game above the Guardians.
Joe Ryan will take the mound Friday and face the Orioles for the second time this season. The 26-year-old right-hander yielded a couple of runs on six hits across 4.2 frames of work in a no-decision at Camden Yards on May 3.
Ryan went 1-1 with a bloated 5.74 ERA across 15.2 innings (three starts) in June. He still holds a strong 6-3 record, 3.20 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP in 11 starts (59 frames) in 2022.
- 7-23 in the last 30 games against Minnesota
- 7-3 in Joe Ryan’s last ten starts
- 10-0 in the last ten home games against Baltimore
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Pick
Spenser Watkins’ FIP sits at 5.59 for the season, and the 29-year-old righty could be in trouble when he meets the Twins, who own a healthy .255/.324/.430 slash line against the right-handed pitchers this season. Watkins already met Minnesota on May 5 and yielded three earned runs on seven hits and a pair of walks across 4.2 frames of work.
On the other side, Joe Ryan has struggled since spending some time on the COVID list in the first half of June. He should improve, while the Twins’ offense will have to make the difference in this game. Minnesota is slashing .267/.327/.451 with ten home runs in its last eight contests.
Pick: Take Minnesota Twins at -205
In the last ten days of action, the Orioles’ bullpen has recorded a 3.54 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and .232 BABIP across 28 innings, while the Twins’ bullpen has compiled a 3.79 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and .253 BABIP through 35.2 frames.
Seven of Baltimore’s last ten outings have seen seven or fewer runs on the scoreboard. On the other side, three of Minnesota’s previous nine contests have produced more than eight runs in total.
Pick: Go under 8.0 runs at +105