Last Updated: 2018-01-03
After looking at the America East and American Athletic conferences, we now jump to one of the ‘Big Dogs’ in college basketball, the Atlantic Coast Conference, where we have three of the top 10 teams in the country, led by Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. At the start of the season I said Virginia may be the best bet of the ‘Big 4’ teams in the conference, with Louisville being the other and the Cavaliers haven’t disappointed, going 7-3 ATS, but Duke and North Carolina have been solid against the number as well, with the Blue Devils going 8-4 and UNC posting an 8-5 spread record. Louisville, which has fallen down the rankings a bit has gone 3-7-1.
Atlantic Coast Conference Power Ratings
North Carolina 94
Miami, Fla. 93
Florida State 92
Notre Dame 89
Virginia Tech 87
Wake Forest 83
Boston College 83
North Carolina State 81
Georgia Tech 73
Florida State (8-2-1) and Clemson (8-2) have posted the best spread records in the ACC, while Louisville is the only team in the conference to have an ATS record worse than one game under .500. While Notre Dame, NC State, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech each have a losing record against the number, they 4-5, 3-4, 5-6 and 4-5, respectively.
Louisville’s 0-3 straight-up record against top 50 teams is tied with Wake Forest for worst in the conference, while Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are both 0-2. Even Georgia Tech and Boston College have wins over top 50 teams.
The most surprising aspect so far about Virginia is their 7-2 record as a favorite, since the Cavaliers aren’t designed to score a whole lot of points, while they dropped their only game as an underdog.
While Duke’s 8-4 ATS record was a bit of a surprise considering what a public team the Blue Devils are, an even bigger surprise is Duke’s 11-1 record in totals, as the public tends to love betting overs. It will be interesting to see if oddsmakers start jacking up their totals even more, although that wouldn’t have made much difference so far, as only one game that went over was close to the number. The majority have easily sailed over the total.
The Pitt Panthers are at the other end of the spectrum, having gone 1-8 in totals so far, although quite a few have just managed to stay under the number, while Clemson (3-7 in totals) have played under in six of their last seven games.
-END OF JANUARY 3 UPDATE-
We’ll continue with our look at the big conferences and head to the Atlantic Coast Conference, where we find several teams who have the potential to win it all. There’s the ‘Big 4’ of Louisville, Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, then a bit of a gap before we get to the next tier of teams, such as Notre Dame and Miami, Fla.
Two of our sets of ratings had their top team coming out of the ACC, although one has Louisville ranked the highest and another has Duke. Duke is actually the fourth-rated team in the conference according the power ratings, as the Blue Devils received a bit of a low score from one of the sets of ratings, while the other three teams in the top tier were a lot more consistent in the ratings that they received.
There’s a 22-point difference between the highest and lowest rated teams in the ACC, although Boston College is a bit of an anomaly, as they are the only team ranked below 80. The Eagles were also one of the most consistently rated teams, with ranges of 74 to 78. The most consistent team, and probably the most consistent we’ve run into in all the power rating articles we’ve done so far this season, is Notre Dame, which saw its ratings vary just 1.5 points from highest to lowest, while Wake Forest had just a difference of 2.1 points.
ACC Opening Power Ratings
North Carolina 98
Notre Dame 92
Miami, Fl. 90
Florida State 88
Virginia Tech 87
Wake Forest 85
Georgia Tech 83
NC State 82
Boston College 76
Virginia is a bit of a dark horse when it comes to the top four teams, as they don’t get near the attention the other three teams do and might have a little value attached to them at points during the season.
Several of the mid-tier teams, from Miami through Georgia Tech, could have been rated a little bit higher, but one set of ratings didn’t have them quite so high as the other three. In the case of Miami, the Hurricanes had one 91 rating, two 92 ratings, but an 84 rating to give their starting figure of 90.
Virginia Tech was just the opposite, as one set of ratings really liked the Hokies and their starting figure of 87 is a point or two higher than three sets of ratings had them, but well below the 93.54 they received from the fourth set of numbers.
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