Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers – Free Betting Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 01:00 pm ATLANTA (5-9) at CAROLINA (6-8)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
105ATLANTA 45 25.4 27.2 5-9 4-10-0 8-6-0 90.7 288.5 379.2 126.3 251.2 377.5
106CAROLINA +3 23.8 24.6 6-8 6-8-0 7-7-0 134.6 234.1 368.7 101.9 250.3 352.2

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Panthers (-4) are set to host their NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons in Carolina. This early afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds

The spread for this NFC matchup is sitting at 4 points in favor of Carolina. The Falcons are currently getting +150 moneyline odds while the Panthers are -170. This NFC tilt will probably present several in-game betting possibilities. The over/under is set at 47 points.

Betting odds have swayed a little from where they first opened. The line opened at -4 while the game’s total was initially placed at 47.5.

The Falcons are 5-9 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 6-8 SU overall and 1-3 SU versus divisional foes. The disappointing Falcons are 4-10 against the spread (ATS) and are down 7.2 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 8-6.

The Panthers have lost 3.2 units this season. The team is 6-8 ATS and has an even O/U record of 7-7.

The Falcons are on the upswing after a 40-14 win over Arizona in Week 15. Matt Ryan completed 22 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Tevin Coleman (145 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win while Julio Jones (six receptions, 82 yards, one TD) and Calvin Ridley (five catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Carolina most-recently dropped a 12-9 game to New Orleans last week. The defense allowed the Saints to kill the clock by rushing for 155 yards on 32 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Alvin Kamara had a good showing, recording 67 rushing yards and a score on 14 attempts for New Orleans. For Carolina, Cam Newton completed 16-of-29 passes for 131 yards and one interception. Christian McCaffrey (53 yards on 15 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat as McCaffrey (eight receptions, 67 yards) and Jarius Wright (three catches, 21 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Atlanta has run the ball on 35.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Carolina has a rush percentage of 42.7 percent. The Falcons have run for 91 yards/game (including 79 per game against South opponents) and have 10 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Panthers are averaging 135 rush yards per contest (142 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Panthers ought to hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Falcons have recorded 4.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.9 YPC to opponents.

The Falcons have averaged 309 yards in the air overall (345 per game against conference opposition) and have 30 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have put up 249 pass yards per game (265.8 in the NFC) and have 25 total pass scores.

Atlanta has let opponents rush for an average of 126 yards and pass for 268 yards per game. Carolina has allowed 101.9 yards per game on the ground and 264.6 to opposing teams in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Falcons have given up an ANY/A of 6.80 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers are yielding an ANY/A of 6.87.

Ryan is already up to 4,045 passing yards this year. He’s completed 348-of-496 attempts with 27 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. Ryan’s got a 7.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.24 over the last two outings.

We’re expecting the Falcons to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to wideout Julio Jones (1,405 receiving yards and four touchdowns), Tevin Coleman (659 rush yards, three rush TDs, five receiving TDs) and Ito Smith (255 rush yards, four rush TDs) have delivered in the offense for Atlanta.

On the other sideline, Cam Newton has accounted for 3,130 yards, 24 TDs and 12 INTs. Newton’s ANY/A stands at 6.25 for the year and 3.59 over his past two outings.

The Panthers also like to leverage their backfield. In addition to Christian McCaffrey (730 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Curtis Samuel (84 rush yards, two rush TDs, 301 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and D.J. Moore (172 rush yards, 621 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten a multitude of action lately.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Free Prediction

SU Winner – Panthers, ATS Winner – Falcons, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Notes

The Atlanta D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 34 times this season. Carolina has produced 32 sacks.

Carolina has lost five fumbles this season while the Atlanta offense has let nine get away.

The Falcons offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Panthers have accounted for four such plays.

The Atlanta defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Carolina has given up 10 such plays.

The Atlanta offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Carolina has created 13 such runs.

The Falcons defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up nine such runs.

The Over/Under for Carolina’s previous match was set at 50. The under cashed in the 12-9 loss to New Orleans.

Over its last three matchups, Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

Over its last three games, Atlanta is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Atlanta’s previous game was 43.5. The over cashed in the team’s 40-14 victory over Arizona.

As a team, Atlanta has rushed for 5.4 yards per attempt across its past three outings and 6.3 over its last two.

Carolina has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.

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