We’re in the second quarter of the NFL season with Week 5 games, and one of them is this divisional rivalry tilt on Sunday, October 9, so make sure you read the best Falcons vs. Buccaneers betting pick and odds.

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay are looking to move above .500 when they meet at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers are 10-point favorites on BetDSI Sportsbook, while the total is set at 46.5 points. These NFC South foes have met twice in 2021, and the Bucs won both games.

Falcons upset the Browns at home

The Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 4-0 ATS) opened the new NFL season with a pair of defeats to the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams but responded with two wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. Atlanta surprised Cleveland 23-20 at home despite failing to score in two quarters. However, they did outscore the Browns 13-7 in the final 15 minutes and sealed the victory through kicker Younghoe Koo.

Marcus Mariota completed just seven of 19 passes for 139 yards and an interception. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with 55 yards on two receptions, but Atlanta was much better on the ground. The Falcons collected 202 yards and a couple of TDs on 35 carries. Tyler Allgeier led the bunch with 84 yards, while Caleb Huntley and Cordarrelle Patterson scored a touchdown apiece. Mykal Walker and Rashaan Evans were monsters on defense with 21 combined tackles.

TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), and WR Calvin Ridley (suspension) are out and will not play on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Buccaneers couldn’t cope with the Chiefs’ high-flying offense

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) entered the season with force and two wins in a row as they beat the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. Still, they couldn’t continue in the same fashion and lost the next two games to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. The Buccaneers couldn’t deal with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ prolific offense, allowing 41 points in a 41-31 home defeat.

It was an uphill battle from the very first play of the game as Tampa Bay lost a fumble and was punished immediately with a touchdown. The Bucs trailed since the first minute and were never really close to the Chiefs. Tom Brady completed 39 of 52 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. Mike Evans, who led all the receivers with 103 yards on eight catches, was on the receiving end of two of those TD passes, while Leonard Fournette caught the third one. Tampa Bay’s run offense didn’t work, they had three yards on six carries. Defensively, the Buccaneers had three individuals with 10+ tackles: Mike Edwards, Devin White, and Lavonte David.

DT Akiem Hicks (plantar fasciitis), CB Logan Ryan (foot), C Ryan Jensen (knee), TE Cameron Brate (concussion), G Aaron Stinnie (knee), and RB Giovani Bernard (ankle) are all out. WR Julio Jones (undisclosed) and CB Carlton Davis III (stinger) are questionable to face the Falcons on Sunday.



  • 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games following a straight-up win
  • 7-16 ATS in the last 23 games in October

Tampa Bay:

  • 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. NFC South rivals
  • 5-2 ATS in the last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
  • 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games following a straight-up loss

Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick  

I wanted to back the Falcons to cover here, but after finding out that Cordarrelle Patterson landed on IR, I changed my mind. Now, I am going with the Bucs to finally secure their first home victory of the season. Without Patterson, who is a multi-talented guy who can hurt you on the ground or through the air, the Falcons will be limited offensively. Marcus Mariota is not a good passer; the Falcons are averaging only 181.0 passing yards per game, but are much better in a run offense that produces 168.0 ypg. However, the Buccaneers have the second-best run defense which allows just 65.3 yards, so it will be hard for the visitors to move the chains here.

Pick: Take the Buccaneers to win at -9.5 (-120)

The Total

Tampa has the sixth-best defense which allows 17.0 ppg and considering the Falcons will be limited on Sunday, I don’t think the visitors will score more than 17 points. Tampa Bay scored more than 20 points only once this year, so I also don’t expect the Bucs to explode offensively here. Under is 6-1 in the Falcons’ last seven games following a straight-up win; Under is 9-2 in the Buccaneers’ previous 11 vs. NFC opponents, while Under is 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games following a straight-up loss.

Pick: Go Under 46.5 points (-110)