2017 Atlanta Braves Over Under Win Total Analysis
Last Updated: 2017-03-29
Well, we’ve finally reached the final division in the 2017 MLB Season Win Totals preview series. That is the National League East. It has been interesting to watch the rebuild unfold and now fans can watch the rebuild in a new facility. SunTrust Park will open for play when the Atlanta Braves return home on April 14 against the San Diego Padres.
As an aside, we’ll have to see how the ballpark plays. The outfield dimensions are pretty similar to Turner Field, but parks play differently based on the construction. Turner Field, which had been a pretty decent pitcher’s park for a while started to play better for hitters in recent years. It probably won’t have a significant impact on Atlanta’s season win total, as the team isn’t exactly tailored to have more success in a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park, but it could be a little bit different for visiting teams.
The Braves also enter this season under the direction of Brian Snitker. Atlanta started 9-28 under Fredi Gonzalez last season and very quietly went 59-65 under Snitker over the final 124 games. The Braves had one game rained out that was not made up, so they finished the year 68-93. Again, very quietly, Atlanta was a 37-35 team in the second half of the year, despite a -23 run differential. The Nationals won 15 of the 19 head-to-head meetings, otherwise things could have been quit a bit different. Atlanta won the season series against the other three division foes. The final year of Turner Field was a dud with a 30-50 record and July 4 loss at Fort Bragg Park as the home team.
Per Pythagorean Win-Loss, the Braves were one game worse than their expected record. Per BaseRuns, Atlanta was two games worse than their projections. The Braves did seem to accelerate the timeline of their rebuilding, however, by looking as competent as they did over the final 75 percent of the season.
Given the offseason acquisitions, this is another transitional year for the Braves, but the farm system is stronger, help is getting closer, and hope is on the horizon.
Season Win Total Odds
BetDSI: 74.5 (-105/-125)
BetOnline: 74.5 (-105/-125)
5Dimes: 74.5 (100/-130)
Additions: Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, RA Dickey, Sean Rodriguez, Micah Johnson, Rio Ruiz, Kris Medlen, John Danks, Blaine Boyer, Rex Brothers, Christian Walker
Losses: Joe Wieland, Emilio Bonifacio, AJ Pierzynski, Williams Perez, Mallex Smith, Shae Simmons
This offseason followed pretty much the same plan that the previous offseason followed. The Braves stocked up on veterans at reasonable salaries to look to fill gaps in the everyday lineup and possibly spin some of those guys later on for prospects. The Braves traded for Brandon Phillips from Cincinnati, who wanted to unblock Jose Peraza, and also acquired some middle infield depth in Micah Johnson. Sean Rodriguez could have been helpful, but he and his family were involved in a serious car accident and his injuries will keep him from playing this season.
Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, and RA Dickey are there to use and abuse while waiting on a lot of Single-A pitchers to move up through the system. The same can be said about Kris Medlen and John Danks. It helps to have proven veterans with track records in Spring Training and in the organization to help out the kids. The Braves made a late add of Christian Walker once Spring Training already started.
The losses aren’t overly significant, though Mallex Smith was a pretty toolsy player. Shae Simmons is a fireballer, but has a pretty checkered injury past.
Why bet the over?
It’s not a fluke that the Braves were 59-65 over 124 games to end the 2016 season. That’s a long amount of time to keep up a façade. Well, then again, the Texas Rangers did it all season, but when a team as bad as the Braves can do it, that’s something noteworthy. The Braves led the National League in runs scored from September 1 through the end of the regular season and slashed .289/.353/.447 in the process. Overall, the Braves were sixth in runs scored in the second half of the season with a .277/.346/.428 slash line.
The leader of that second-half charge was Freddie Freeman. Elite players on bad teams get overshadowed way too often, but Freeman hung a .323/.433/.634 slash with 18 HR in his final 312 plate appearances last season. He posted a 177 wRC+. The list of players that had a higher wRC+ in the second half? Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera. For the full season, Freeman hit 34 HR with a .302/.400/.569 slash line. His 152 wRC+ was a career high and so was his 6.1 fWAR. The 27-year-old is locked in the prime of his career and that’s definitely exciting for a franchise that doesn’t have a ton to be excited about at the Major League level right now.
Dansby Swanson showed some of the reasons why he was the first player selected in the 2015 MLB Draft out of Vanderbilt University. Swanson slashed .302/.361/.442 in his first 145 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer. He made the jump straight from Double-A and looked like he belonged. He also played league average defense, which was nice to see. As a polished college bat, Swanson doesn’t have a big minor league sample size, but he posted good walk rates and made a lot of solid contact. Those things should carry over to the big league level and did last season in a small sample size. He’s a big upside play in this lineup.
There’s a decent chance that we look back at the Arizona/Atlanta trade on December 9, 2015 as one of the worst in the history of baseball. The Diamondbacks traded Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Blair to Atlanta in exchange for Shelby Miller. The 26-year-old Inciarte just signed an extension with Atlanta after posting a 3.6-win season with a .291/.351/.381 slash line and exceptional defense in center field. Considering how much ground Inciarte had to cover with statuesque Matt Kemp to his left, this was a remarkable season. Inciarte is now about 1,600 plate appearances into his career and seems to be improving. He increased his walk rate by 3.2 percent last season. Leaving Chase Field hurt his power production a little bit, but he’s more of a slash-and-dash hitter anyway.
Matt Kemp’s defense was so bad that it overshadowed a pretty good offensive season. Kemp didn’t walk a whole lot, so he posted a 109 wRC+, but he hit 35 HR and drove in 108. He slashed .268/.304/.499. Kemp is one of those guys that has more value in the counting stats than he does in the advanced metrics, so the projection systems are going to be down on him, but he’s one of those old school guys that drives in runs in the middle of the order. Some people prefer players like that. I’m not one of them, but I do understand and appreciate their value.
Nick Markakis went from three homers to 13 homers last season. He posted a .269/.346/.397 slash, which was slightly below average, but he did happen to rebound defensively with 12 DRS. UZR was less excited about his season, so we’ll have to see how that plays out, but Markakis basically posted similar numbers to the last two seasons when he had wRC+ marks of 106. The league-wide power spike skewed offensive metrics for everybody and Markakis, with another sub-.400 SLG, was one of the guys hurt the most by that development. He still posted a strong OBP and is a calming veteran presence in the lineup.
Adonis Garcia doesn’t walk much, but his contact quality is pretty good. He posted a .308 BABIP with 14 HR in 563 PA. His final slash was an unspectacular .273/.311/.406, but he provided a bit more old school value than new school value. It’s interesting to see a lot of players like that for the Braves. There are a lot of .260 and .270 hitters surrounding high OBP guys like Swanson and Freeman. Every team seems to be looking for that next great inefficiency. Maybe Atlanta feels like this is theirs. Brandon Phillips fits that mold and he was the target of their offseason position player plans. Phillips actually batted .291, but only posted a .320 OBP with how little he walked. He had an 11/14 season and his defense is still passable.
Julio Teheran is the anchor of the Atlanta staff. Teheran had the bounce back year that he needed to have. His K% went up and his BB% went down, so he went from a 4.04 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 4.19 xFIP to a 3.21 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP. He also cut down his home run rate. Teheran’s usage shows a spike in straight four-seam fastballs with more sliders, curves, and changeups to make up for the drop in two-seamer usage. The two-seamer was far and away Teheran’s worst pitch in 2015. It was the only pitch that graded below average in 2016. It’s great to see pitchers take data and apply it. Teheran did and the results were pretty eye-opening. Expecting similar usage this season, Teheran is a good bet for a good year.
Another guy I like for a bounce back is Jaime Garcia. The lefty actually made 30 starts last season for the first time since 2011. He’s spent a lot of time making rehab starts and in the trainer’s room. Ironically, he had a poor season. He’s still an extreme ground ball guy and his HR/FB% should regress a little bit from last year’s 20.2 percent. The Braves are a decent defensive team on the infield and good in center, so hopefully that helps Garcia. He also started walking more batters last season to exacerbate his problems. Projection systems like a bounce back and so do I.
I don’t see it with Mike Foltynewicz, but projection systems do like him a little bit as about a league average pitcher over 150 innings. If he can be an average starter, that will be good enough given this season win total and the outlook for the Braves. A guy like Bartolo Colon should be a little bit above average. Since the PRP injection that saved his career, Colon has worked at least 190 innings every year since 2013 and has done so with FIPs that are better than league average. He’s missing fewer bats, but he’s still a wizard in terms of control and that won’t suddenly stop. RA Dickey is nothing special, but he’s a different look as a knuckleballer and a league average stat line in the NL isn’t a stretch.
By loading up on velocity via trades and acquisitions, the Braves have some strikeout artists in the bullpen. They also have a lot of guys that will issue walks. Mauricio Cabrera is probably the guy with the most upside with a bullet train fastball and no real idea of where it’s going. He did pitch around some walks last season and by being effectively wild, he didn’t give up a single home run in 38.1 innings. Arodys Vizcaino also has suspect control, but runs it up close to triple digits. Jim Johnson, who probably has the best control in the Braves pen, will start as the closer.
Why bet the under?
The Braves had a couple of guys in Freeman and Inciarte who rated very well across the board in all metrics. Unfortunately, most others did not. Nick Markakis had an out-of-body defensive experience with regards to defensive runs saved, but UZR was not a fan of his performance. Corner outfielders with slugging percentages under .400 are not particularly valuable players. In the opposite corner, Matt Kemp had good counting stats, but he also plays the outfield like Ray Charles. Kemp is now -106 defensive runs saved in the outfield for his career, including a -55 mark over the last three seasons. Power is nice, but Kemp’s .304 OBP is not nice at all. It was .336 when he got out of the San Diego Padres organization, but Kemp also hit 12 HR in just 56 games with the Braves. I think we need to temper expectations for his offensive performance. That short two-month sample with Atlanta wasn’t quite what we should expect. And, because his defense is so bad, he’s been a replacement-level player since 2012.
It’s easy to see why Dansby Swanson is so highly touted. The tools are all there, but it is also fair to wonder what we will see from the 23-year-old this year. He wasn’t exactly tearing up Double-A when he got the call with a .261/.342/.402 slash. There’s a reason people call it a sophomore slump. Opponents adjust. From September 11 to the end of the season, Swanson struck out 32.4 percent of the time in 68 plate appearances while facing mostly NL East competition. It is an extremely small sample size and it’s not predictive, but it does illustrate the challenges that hitters face once teams have advance scouting reports. If not for a .432 BABIP when he did put the ball in play, he would have ended the season on a very sour note. Also, it’s always fair to wonder how players will do with the 162-game grind. That’s not to rain on Swanson’s long-term projections, it’s simply to say that I don’t know what to expect this season. On a Braves team that appears to be batting him second, that could be a really interesting thing to follow.
I love Freddie Freeman, but I’m pretty confidence in saying that the 2016 season was the outlier for Freeman. He jumped from .195 to .267 in ISO. His HR/FB% went from 15.8 percent to 19.9 percent. The list of players that carried a 19 percent or higher HR/FB% last season are established power threats like Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mike Napoli. I don’t know if Freeman can keep up a pace like that. It’s entirely possible that he’s just coming into his own, but I’m looking for offensive regression. He also carried a .370 BABIP with that massive power spike. Home runs obviously count towards batting average, but not towards batting average on balls in play. With regression coming in those key areas, I’d expect something more like Freeman’s 2015 line of .276/.370/.471. That’s obviously a very good season, but it’s not 6.1 fWAR good. I think there’s some regression here. It won’t be overly concerning, but it will definitely cut into Atlanta’s bottom line offensively.
Brandon Phillips is a below average offensive player. Adonis Garcia is a below average offensive player. He’s also not a particularly good defender. Whichever catcher gets the nod to play the most games, they’re all poor offensive players. Even though Ender Inciarte provides a decent amount of value that wRC+ doesn’t account for as much as it probably should, he was a below average offensive player. His walk rate also spiked 3.2 percent, so we’ll have to see if that change hangs around. The Braves were pretty fortunate to be such a good offense in the second half because Freddie Freeman was unconscionably hot and Matt Kemp had a big burst.
I detailed Julio Teheran’s usage changes last season and they certainly helped in a big way. I think he’ll be an above average starter no matter what, but he did have a 77.8 percent LOB% last season, which is certainly higher than you would expect from a guy with a strikeout rate a couple ticks better than league average. Some regression from that would push his ERA from 3.21 to closer to 3.61. It’s a big deal, necessarily, but, as I’ve talked about, we look for small edges to create bigger ones. Each bit of player improvement or regression can have an impact on the full season.
I’m probably selling Mike Foltynewicz short because he has started to mix his pitches a lot better. He was primarily a thrower and now he’s showing signs of being a pitcher with more slider usage and more changeups. His bread-and-butter remains the four-seam fastball, but it was his worst pitch last season and he threw it over 50 percent of the time. He got a bit unlucky in the second half to cut his SLG against by 91 points and still post an ERA that was more than a run higher than the first half. I’m still worried about the depth of his arsenal and I don’t know if the command is good enough to play at anything more than average.
One’s a knuckleballer and one’s able to defy Father Time, but RA Dickey and Bartolo Colon are both on the wrong side of 40. The reason those two guys were brought in on fairly expensive free agent deals is to simply buy time to let guys like Aaron Blair, Max Fried, and the collection of prospects headlined by Touki Toussaint develop. If age catches up with either of them, there’s a decent option in Matt Wisler, but there’s not a whole lot behind that. It’s not like it will take much to replace a guy like Dickey, but there’s also value in volume when it comes to starting pitching. The Braves have no illusions about this starting staff. Its entire goal is to stay healthy. When you talk about guys well on the wrong side of the aging curve, that’s worrisome.
The Braves bullpen is something. There are a lot of guys that will strike out over a batter per inning. There are also a lot of guys that will issue a lot of walks. Jim Johnson’s massive strikeout bump from last season should be viewed with a fair amount of skepticism. He was in the National League, which helps, but relievers aren’t seeing pitchers the way that starters are. I don’t see any really significant usage changes that could explain anything. We’ll see how this group goes, but there could be some frustrating moments.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 74.5 (-125; BetDSI or BetOnline)
Yeah…I’m not buying the Braves for this season. A lot of people seem to be on the Braves train and like this team to surprise. It’s easy to see why. They were very good in the second half of last season and played good ball over a sustained period of time. Unfortunately, there isn’t a group on this team that I really like. The starting rotation is well below average in my estimation. The Braves don’t have a great equalizer like a dominant bullpen. The lineup is decent with Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Freddie Freeman, but Freeman is going to regress. Swanson should have growing pains. Inciarte is what he is and he’s a good player, but he has to cover a large swath of land in the outfield.
The unfamiliarity of SunTrust Park makes it hard to endorse this as a play. I do think that the Braves will take some steps back in key areas, so I’d still look at the under. If I had to make a play in the NL East, this would be second to a pick with the other rebuilding team. There just isn’t enough depth or upside here for me. This is a work in progress and too many of the interesting prospects are in the lower levels of the minors. They’re coming, but not fast enough to make an impact this season. As exciting as it was to see the Braves go 59-65 over the last 124 games, that pace over 162 games is just 77 wins. I really don’t see them getting to that point.
-END OF 2017 PREVIEW-
It’s a building year and a rebuilding year for the Atlanta Braves. SunTrust Park is being built northwest of Atlanta and the roster is being built in Gwinnett, Mississippi, Carolina, Rome, and Danville. Those are the minor league affiliates for the Atlanta Braves and those will be the teams to follow this season. The Major League roster has produced one of the lowest season win total lines in the league and with good reason. Coming off of a 67-95 season in which the Braves lost 48 of their 73 games after the All-Star Break while getting outscored 375-226, expectations could not be any lower.
This isn’t a season about wins and losses. It’s fair to wonder whether or not Fredi Gonzalez is the best man for the job in terms of developing this talent through patience, trial and error, and losses – lots and lots of losses. Atlanta was 28-18 in one-run games last season, but they were beaten by five or more runs 27 times and posted a Pythagorean win-loss record of 61-101. By BaseRuns, a standings metric produced by expected runs scored and expected runs allowed, the Braves had a 61-101 record.
It’s all part of the process and now is actually a good time for the Braves to rebuild. By the time they are competitive, the New York Mets will be making some impossibly hard financial decisions about their elite group of young starting pitchers. The Washington Nationals will be on the wrong side of the aging curve. Going through a rebuild is miserable for the fans, but sometimes it’s a good thing to reshuffle the deck or fold your cards to begin the next hand.
The good thing is that there seems to be a lot of continuity within the organization in terms of how to rebuild and what assets to acquire. John Hart brought in a lot of placeholders this offseason to provide some veteran leadership. Recent and previous trades have focused on high upside arms or position player prospects with projectable skill sets.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the Braves move some of their better young players, like Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcombe, Aaron Blair, and Touki Toussaint up the ladder, but the team has committed to eating salary to get better prospects and they have a really strong farm system and the potential for a top-five starting rotation down the line. Unfortunately, very few of their best prospects are going to show up at the big league level this season, which means that there is very little to be excited about in 2016 unless you watch a lot of minor league baseball. To be honest, the Braves will look like a minor league team more often than not. But, that’s okay. The end will justify the means.
Season win total odds:
BetOnline: 67.5 (-115/-115)
5Dimes: 65.5 (-145/115)
Bovada: 66.5 (-115/-115)
Key additions: Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Bud Norris, Jim Johnson, Erick Aybar, Ian Krol, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Emilio Bonifacio, Kyle Kendrick, Kelly Johnson
Key losses: Andrelton Simmons, Cameron Maybin, Shelby Miller, Christian Bethancourt
Most of these names are not “key” additions, in the sense that none of the Major Leaguers are that list are going to be impact players. They will, however, play major roles for the team in a rebuilding year. This basically amounts to finding enough warm bodies to fill out a roster. Ender Inciarte is a high-upside player that could thrive defensively in a place like Turner Field. Dansby Swanson is a long way away, but he’s a very key addition for the future. Aaron Blair will get some MLB work this season.
The big losses are Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, but these are trades that make sense for a rebuilding club. Controlled players with upside, but flaws, are always worthwhile trade assets for a team ready to undergo a facelift. Simmons is an elite defender, but he can’t really hit. Miller is a guy that probably peaked last season, so the Braves sold really high to a team that has no idea how to evaluate talent and the assets necessary to acquire that talent. Hell, Arizona traded Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for simply eating Bronson Arroyo’s contract. Toussaint is Atlanta’s sixth-best prospect per Baseball Prospectus.
Why bet the over?
Well, it’s hard to lose 95+ games, which is about what the Braves would need to do in order to go under this win total. As uninspiring as the talent pool is at the big league level, there are a lot of guys here that have carved out professional careers over a long period of time. One player that is a core building block for the Braves is Freddie Freeman. While battling a handful of injuries, Freeman still posted a 133 wRC+, a .364 wOBA, and a 3.4-win season per Fangraphs in his 481 plate appearances. His production will be solid and he’s one of the best hitters in baseball in terms of contact quality. You rarely see a guy with minimal speed hang a .336 BABIP over 3,097 plate appearances, but he makes really great contact. He also has a stellar walk rate and isn’t a big detriment defensively at all.
Ender Inciarte is a really fun player. He’s got really good speed coming out of the left-handed batter’s box, which helps his ability to beat out ground balls and turn singles into doubles to help his slugging percentage. He puts the bat on the ball and owns a .292 average over 1,008 plate appearances. Inciarte is also a spectacular defender at any of the outfield positions. He’ll start in center for this team and should be a three-win player without much trouble.
It’s a lot harder to find upside throughout the rest of the lineup because aging veterans like these tend to be high floor, low ceiling guys. For example, you’ve got a guy like Nick Markakis starting in right field in his age-32 season. Markakis consistently puts the bat on the ball with a pretty decent walk rate and minimal power. As we saw last season with the Royals, there may be some merit to the concept of contact over walking. Markakis, however, has skills for both. In the middle of this order, he’ll give you a .290 average, 8-10 HR and probably 35 doubles. It’s not spectacular, but it’s reliable.
Erick Aybar is another one. His best days are in the past, but a new league that plays better to his skill set could net some value. He’s a reliable .270 hitter with no walk rate and some decent stolen base totals. The one common theme running through this team is that nobody strikes out at an obscene rate except for Tyler Flowers. That will put the onus on opposing defenses to get outs. There’s value in that since some teams will struggle quite a bit defensively.
Hector Olivera is one of the few guys that has some upside in this lineup, mostly because we aren’t sure what he will do. Olivera didn’t spend a whole lot of time at any one minor league level to get a reasonable sample size and there are some injury concerns about him coming over from Cuba. He could be a super utility guy or he could play the majority of his time in the outfield. There’s some bat-to-ball upside here with a little bit of power and the possibility for him to be around a two-win player.
Jace Peterson hit at most levels in the minor leagues and showed an above average walk rate last season. He turned a .239 average into a .314 OBP with his patience, so that’s a feather in his cap. Peterson is a league average type of player in a lot of respects. He won’t kill you defensively and won’t hurt you a ton offensively. Given his better BABIP luck in the minors, an average bump up to .250 with a .325 OBP seems plausible.
From a pitching standpoint, Julio Teheran is only one year removed from accumulating 3.2 fWAR. Last season, his control and command both regressed and it led to a 4.04 ERA with a 4.19 xFIP. It’s hard to believe that Teheran is only 25, but that’s the case, so there’s a lot of hope for a bounce back. He posted a 3.42 ERA with a 4.02 xFIP in the second half and he’s almost always going to be a guy with a higher xFIP because he’s a fly ball pitcher with average K/BB stats and those numbers aren’t well-liked by the sabermetric calculations.
Bud Norris gets a chance to build his career in a low-pressure environment and that could be favorable. He is a guy that missed bats with regularity for a while, but the American League was not kind to him. He’s in a good park for neutral ground ball/fly ball guys and that might help curtail some of his home run woes. He’s not going to be great by any means, but a 3.75 ERA with a 4.00 xFIP or thereabouts is doable.
Matt Wisler has a little bit of upside if you trust his minor league stats. In the minors, he showed good swing-and-miss stuff with good walk rates. None of that stuff happened in his 109 innings last season. But, it was his first exposure to the bigs and he’s only 23 years of age. He’s a fly ball guy, so this is a decent park for him and his numbers should improve across the board. Maybe not enough to provide a significant amount of value, but enough to possibly be in the ballpark of league average. Again, we’re talking about a team pegged to win 67 or 68 games, so league average is a step up from most of what the Braves have to offer.
Things could be dicey at the back end of the rotation, with a very hittable pitcher in Williams Perez and an injury-plagued southpaw in Manny Banuelos. Youth is a valuable asset for both of these guys, so maybe there’s some room for improvement. More than likely, the improvement will show up when Aaron Blair and Casey Kelly make the jump. Kelly showed some promise in the Padres organization before Tommy John derailed him. Blair has a really strong command profile and can run it up there in the mid-90s. With 77 Triple-A innings under his belt, he could make the leap sooner rather than later.
Jason Grilli was having his second career year in three seasons at the ripe old age of 39, but an Achilles injury stopped his season in its tracks. It’s fair to wonder whether or not his recent performances are sustainable as his age keeps going up, but there could be additional mileage on his arm because he struggled to be a Major League regular for a while and had some surgeries. He’s only thrown 585.2 innings, even though his MLB career began in 2000.
The supporting cast features an intriguing setup man in Arodys Vizcaino and a bounce back candidate in Jim Johnson. If Chris Withrow is healthy, he throws hard and misses bats. Shae Simmons will return from Tommy John surgery around midseason. The Braves carried over their philosophy of acquiring power pitchers in starting roles to the bullpen, where they are trying to accumulate velocity and see what sticks.
Why bet the under?
Well, outside of Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis, there are no other above average, proven Major League bats. Freeman spent most of last season banged up and Markakis has less power than little Mario from the old Nintendo game. Those two will carry whatever load they can, especially if Markakis’s walk gains stick around, but this is a team that scored just 573 runs last season. Without Freeman, the Braves were 19-25. With Freeman, they were 48-70. There’s really only so much that he can do and teams are liable to just pitch around him or let him try to hit a double or a solo home run and go from there.
Ender Inciarte was a great pick-up, but he goes from Chase Field to Turner Field, where his numbers are likely to drop on the offensive side of things. As it is, he doesn’t walk and doesn’t have a whole lot of power. He’s very BABIP-dependent and there can be some fluctuations with that. With a .310 BABIP in 2014, Inciarte had a .278/.318/.359 slash. With a .329 in 2015, he had a .303/.338/.408. One was league average. The other was 13 percent below league average. He’ll still carry value because he’s a good baserunner and an elite defender, but his offense has a decent range of possibilities.
How will Adonis Garcia adjust when pitchers adjust to him? He hit 10 home runs in just 198 plate appearances in his debut season at the age of 30. But, he walked just five times in those 198 trips to the dish. He only struck out 35 times, so that was solid, but the big power spike seemed to be a little bit of an anomaly and his minor league track record is spotty at best. He’s also not a very good defender at third base, posting a -3 DRS in 345.1 innings.
The Braves project to be below average at catcher, second base, and left field, with center field and right field shrouded in uncertainty from an offensive standpoint. This team is not going to score many runs this season either. There won’t be any help from below and there’s no depth to this roster. The prospects that are the closest to the Majors in this system are pitchers. Any veteran having a decent season will be traded at the deadline. It’s actually in Atlanta’s best interest to try and create trade value from guys like Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. That probably won’t happen, but the only way that it can happen is to play them. We’ll see if that’s the strategy that they take. It may have been part of the business model in the offseason, since teams are always in search of veterans with clubhouse presence that can perform at an adequate level in a part-time role. It worked out when they acquired Juan Uribe last year and then spun him to the Mets.
Regardless, as concerning as the lineup is, the starting rotation is pretty terrifying. Everything started to go downhill once Jason Heyward was sent to St. Louis because he was an elite defender that made the entire outfielder better. Now, the Braves run into a similar situation with Andrelton Simmons gone. Shortstop is the most important position in the field and he’s gone. How about this stat? The Braves were -15 in defensive runs saved, which ranked 24th. They were 13th in UZR at 7.6. Andrelton Simmons accounted for 25 defensive ruins saved and 17.3 UZR. At -40 DRS, only the Mariners and Phillies would have been worse defensively. At -9.7 UZR, the Braves would have dropped to 19th.
It’s hard to quantify exactly what Simmons’s absence will do for the Braves, but it’s not good. It’s not good at all. The Mets and Twins were 30th and 29th, respectively, and both of them finished with winning records, but teams like the Reds, Padres, White Sox, and Phillies were down towards the bottom of the league. The Braves definitely don’t have the Mets pitching staff and the Twins were one of baseball’s biggest overachievers per BaseRuns last season.
I’m not in love with projection systems, but there’s something to be said about how the Braves are projected for 9.8 fWAR from all of their pitchers combined. The next lowest in baseball is the Angels at 10.9. The next lowest in the National League is the Phillies at 11.5, another bottom feeder. Julio Teheran is projected for the best season at 1.9 fWAR, but lefties got back after it against him after a down 2014 season. Lefties batted .284/.340/.483 in 2013 and then bottomed out at .235/.292/.395 in 2014. Last season, lefties batted .297/.387/.507, so they made adjustments and Teheran did not. The most concerning part might be the 64/47 K/BB against lefties. He induces enough weak aerial contact to keep his ERA in the 3.80-4.00 range, but is that #1 starter material? Of course not. But, that’s what he is here, for better or worse.
Projections are high on Bud Norris, but it’s really hard to buy in. Norris is a guy with shoddy control and command and was not a full-time starter last season. He’s the right type of buy-low guy for a rebuilding team, but he’s there to eat innings and maybe be a worthwhile trade piece in July. You won’t find many pitchers with lower PITCHf/x fastball values over the last six seasons than Norris. League average is the absolute ceiling for Norris and the floor is quite low.
Command was not a big issue for Matt Wisler in the minor leagues, but big league hitters cranked 16 homers in just 109 innings off of him last season. Wisler’s list of problems is rather extensive. He didn’t miss bats and really didn’t miss enough bats at Triple-A before his call-up. He doesn’t throw enough strikes and the ones that he does throw wind up as souvenirs or extra-base hits. With experience, he could morph into a consistent starter, but he’s not at that point yet. A 4.50 ERA with a similar xFIP seems pretty likely and a below replacement-level performance is the theme of the back end of this rotation.
Williams Perez and Manny Banuelos have health concerns and also a lot of performance concerns. They project to be guys, like Wisler, in the 4.30-4.50 ERA range with similar peripherals, not enough strikeouts, too many walks, and not enough command. Mike Foltynewicz is in this group as well, despite elite velocity. With young depth that won’t be ready until mid-season and will go through growing pains at that point anyway, it’s clear to see why this will be the worst rotation in all of baseball.
Jason Grilli and Shae Simmons are coming off of major surgeries. Grilli is 39, so the mileage on his arm is up for debate anyway. Arodys Vizcaino was good in a 33.2-inning sample, including some closing opportunities, but he’s been a rather erratic guy throughout his career. He does have the most upside of any reliever, so it’s hard to nitpick him with the other options that are available. Jim Johnson has spent the last two seasons being awful and it’s hard to see why that would change now. Not to mention, he’s an extreme ground ball guy and Simmons is in Anaheim. A lot of young guys could start to see high-leverage action throughout the season and that’s not something you want to trust.
Like all bad teams, the Braves will be viewed as one of the primary sellers at the Trade Deadline. That’s a big reason why John Hart and John Coppolella went this route. They’re getting veteran guys to use, abuse, and hopefully spin into more organizational depth. It’s a smart business model, to be honest. But, what that means is that this team could be moving a lot of pieces in June and July, so that can negatively impact a season win total throughout the year.
Pick: Atlanta Braves Under 67.5 (-115 – BetOnline)
Unlike another NL East team, the Braves rebuild is moving rather slowly. They have picked up a lot of power arms and that’s really good, but this is the worst starting rotation in baseball bar none. It may be the worst collection of position players as well, as Freeman is the only guy that is a true impact bat.
A lot of veterans could be on the move as this rebuild continues and the seller’s market with be thin and full of rebuilding teams when late July rolls around. There’s not a whole lot of depth here to begin with. It’s going to be a long year in Atlanta, but, as I said, the end will justify the means because this is a team that can be pretty good by 2018.
-END OF 2016 PREVIEW-