The 2021 World Series begins Tuesday, October 26, so we bring you the best Braves vs. Astros betting pick and tips along with the latest odds update for the opening clash at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
According to Bookmaker Sportsbook, the Astros are -140 favorites to go all the way, while the Braves sit at +120 to win their first Fall Classic since 1995. Houston is a -128 home fave for Game 1 with a total of 8.5 runs.
The Braves hit the Dodgers hard, fully deserved their place in the World Series
The Atlanta Braves beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2021 NLCS in six games and got revenge for a tough seven-game loss in the last year’s NLCS. They eliminated the reigning champs mostly thanks to their offense. Over their last four outings, the Braves have recorded a .268/.346/.457 slash line and Eddie Rosario led the way with a whopping 14 hits in 25 at-bats, six runs scored, and nine RBI.
On the other side of the ball, the Braves have registered a 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a .228 batting average against over their ten outings this postseason. Their bullpen has posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 43 innings of work, and Tyler Matzek led the charge with a sparkly 1.74 ERA and 1.04 FIP.
Charlie Morton will toe the slab Tuesday, and the former Astros’ ace went 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts this past regular season. The 37-year-old righty is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 4.43 FIP in three starts this postseason (14.1 innings pitched). Last Tuesday, Morton tossed five innings of a two-run ball and took a no-decision in a 6-5 defeat to the Dodgers.
The Astros need more from their starting rotation
The Houston Astros needed six games to defeat the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 ALCS. They overcame a 2-1 deficit, recording three impressive wins in a row. Since a heavy 12-3 defeat in Game 3, the Astros have allowed the Red Sox to score only three runs while tallying 23 in a return.
The Astros’ pitching staff has compiled a 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a .245 batting average against so far this postseason. Their bullpen has done a superb job, posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but the Astros desperately need more from their starters, who have registered an awful 5.92 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a .264 batting average against.
Houston is without Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm), so Framber Valdez will have the honor and take the mound Tuesday. Valdez went 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts last regular season, while the 27-year-old lefty is 1-0 with a 4.20 ERA and 4.57 ERA in three starts this postseason (15 innings pitched). Last Wednesday, Framber threw eight frames of a three-hit, one-run ball in a 9-1 victory at the Red Sox.
- 15-4 in the last 19 games overall
- 9-4 in the last 13 games on the road
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros Pick
The Astros’ offense has destroyed Boston over their last three encounters, slashing .303/.377/.486, but the Braves’ pitching staff should be a much taller order for Dusty Baker’s boys. On the other side, the Braves have done a terrific job against the Brewers and Dodgers, who both have some of the best relievers in baseball.
There’s no easy money in this matchup. Framber Valdez has never met Atlanta before, and the current Braves are 3-for-7 with three walks against him. Charlie Morton hasn’t met Houston since 2019 when he was playing for Tampa Bay, and the current Astros are 18-for-61 against him. Morton has a 3.95 ERA in 38 starts and 214 innings of work at Minute Maid Park.
I’m backing the Braves only because they’ve eliminated a couple of teams with great pitching, though their pitching staff has been terrific, too.
Pick: Take Atlanta Braves at +118
I’ve mentioned how good both bullpens have been so far this postseason, but with so many dangerous bats on both sides, I’ll go with the over. Also, I don’t trust Framber Valdez a lot. He’s a typical groundball pitcher, but Framber has had serious problems with control over the last few months.
The over is 8-1 in the Astros’ last nine games overall, and it is 4-1 in the Braves’ previous five outings at any location.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at +100