Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Betting Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Freddie Freeman and the surging Atlanta Braves will head west to PETCO Park to face the San Diego Padres. Fox Sports San Diego will broadcast this NL showdown and the game gets going at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Odds

Oddsmakers have placed equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. If you think this game’s total will go under 8.5 runs, Vegas is currently offering -115 odds. Taking the over will give you -105 odds. This game currently has a runline of Braves -1.5 (+140) and Padres +1.5 (-160).

The Braves are 54-37 SU and have gone 43-48 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.8 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 3.4 units ATS. The Padres, on the other hand, are 45-45 SU and 41-49 ATS. They’ve lost 2.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.5 units ATS.

Padres games have a 44-39-7 over/under record so far in 2019. Atlanta has been a decent over bet with a total record of 48-37-6.

Dallas Keuchel will get the start for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Keuchel is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 12 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Padres this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Padres will deploy righty Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40 ERA) to the mound. Lamet has seven strikeouts and two walks as well as a WHIP of 1.00. Lamet did not appear in the majors last season.

San Diego’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have a 4.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.

San Diego’s hitters are putting up 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .207/.244/.372 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Padres’ batters have been led by first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado. Hosmer is hitting .287/.336/.447 with 13 home runs, 62 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Machado’s line is .266/.339/.489 with 20 homers, 58 RBIs and 51 runs.

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 7.95 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.72, along with a WHIP of 1.38 and a K/9 of 9.50.

The Braves offense has slashed .263/.339/.463 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Atlanta’s offensive production has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who collectively have swatted 44 home runs. Freeman is slashing .309/.394/.584 with 23 home runs, 68 RBIs and 69 runs scored. Acuna Jr. is slashing .292/.377/.506 with 21 homers, 53 RBIs, 68 runs and 13 stolen bases.

The Braves have gained 7.8 units and are 34-37 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 36 of those games, as opposed to 31 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 0.6 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to eight that’ve gone under.

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER


Betting Notes

The under has cashed in four of San Diego’s last seven games.

The Braves have an OPS of .802 this season and an OPS of .794 against right-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS sits at .736 overall and .725 against righties.

The Braves have won four of their last five games SU.

Atlanta has posted 23.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.0 over its last five.

The Braves have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.

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