Home Golf 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Golf Betting Odds & Picks

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Golf Betting Odds & Picks

The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club is a continuation of the Florida swing for the PGA Tour. After last week’s WGC-Workday Championship at the unforgiving Concession Golf Club, the players will have to tackle another tough course here in Bay Hill.

This is another invitational tournament, which means a smaller field than most with a stricter set of qualifications that must be met. This is one of five tournaments with such a distinction, including the Genesis Invitational that we had in California just recently. The field consists of 120 players this week and another strong group of golfers are on hand.

We’ll use the odds from MyBookie Sportsbook to put together a few picks to win the tournament and shed some light on the matchups and other options as well.

The Field

We’ll save the odds for last, but there are a few names noticeably absent from this week’s event. Rory McIlroy is the favorite at +1000, followed by Viktor Hovland and Bryson DeChambeau at +1200, defending champion Tyrrell Hatton at +1600, and then Patrick Reed and Sungjae Im at +2000.

This is not like the WGC field. There are some very good players spread across the +2500 to +5000 range, but we’re missing a lot of the girth at the top that pushed guys like Collin Morikawa down into the +4000 to +4500 range last week. Instead, we’ve got Matthew Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen, Francesco Molinari, Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Marc Leishman, Max Homa, Sam Burns, and Will Zalatoris in that range this week.

Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm are the three biggest names absent from this week, but we also don’t see guys like Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Morikawa, Webb Simpson, and Patrick Cantlay on hand. Bay Hill is a really tough course that some players simply don’t enjoy.

The Course

The lengthy par 72 checks in between 7,400 and 7,500 yards depending on the setup and it is one of the most difficult courses on an annual basis. Windy conditions depressed the winning score last year when Tyrrell Hatton won at 4-under over Marc Leishman.

The list of winners at Bay Hill is fascinating. A lot of elite ball strikers have won, like Tiger Woods, Ty Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Rory, Leishman, and Day, but also guys like Matt Every and Martin Laird. More often than not, a really good player wins here.

Three holes played below par last year and one hole played exactly to par. Two of the holes that played under par were par 5s, so players absolutely need to take advantage of those. Par 4 scoring is really important here. Par is a good score and a birdie is a great score on most of them.

CLAIM YOUR WELCOME BONUS FROM MYBOOKIE SPORTSBOOK

Yay or Neigh?

In our horse for course section, we look at how players have done recently at Bay Hill. Golf handicappers always quibble about whether or not course form or recent form is more important. We’ll let you know about both and you can decide for yourself.

Recent winners in the field this week are Hatton, Laird, Leishman, Rory, Molinari, and Every. Along with his win, Hatton was fourth in 2017. Laird hasn’t finished in the top 25 otherwise. Leishman was second last year and seventh in 2018 right after his win in 2017. He was also third back in 2011. Rory has four straight top-six finishes, including that win in 2018. Molinari has four top-10 finishes since 2014, with his win coming in 2019. Every won back-to-back in 2014-15 and has four missed cuts in five tries since.

Joel Dahmen was fifth last year. DeChambeau was fourth last year and second in 2018. Fitzpatrick was ninth last year, second two years ago, and 13th back in 2017. Tommy Fleetwood missed the cut last year, but was third, 26th, and 10th the three years prior. Lucas Glover also missed the cut last year after a couple of top 10s over the previous three years.

Charley Hoffman has three top-15 finishes in the last four years, including a second in 2017. Sungjae Im has finished third back-to-back times. Jason Kokrak has five top-20 finishes in the last seven years, including three top-10 finishes, with the most recent in 2019. Luke List has three top-20 finishes in a row. He did not play last year.

Kevin Na has three top-10 finishes here, but the most recent was 2015. Justin Rose has four, with his most recent in 2018. He missed the cut last year. Henrik Stenson is in terrible form and his best days seem to be behind him, but he had a run from 2013-18 with five top-eight finishes in six years.

Handicap & Picks

This is a really tough course for rolling the rock. These Bermuda greens are among the fastest on the Tour and that often presents problems for the players. Strokes gained Off the Tee are really important as well. This is a long course that is fairly wind and forgiving, but shot angles into the greens are very important. Proximity to the hole is a big help with these fast-paced greens, so the players that set themselves up for the best shots often do well.

Of the short prices, Patrick Reed at +2000 is the one I like the most. Reed is in pretty good form with a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and a top-10 last week at the WGC event. Reed is second in SG: Putting since the new season started. Reed has a well-rounded game. He’s not a big hitter, but he’s accurate enough and he’s done well with the irons and wedges. He’s also played well here with two top-15 finishes in his three starts. Reed is also third in birdie or better percentage on par 4s and that will be important this week.

At +3500, Molinari is also in some outstanding form with three top-10 finishes in his last four events. His prices have been dropping like a rock and this may be the last week that we get something of a decent price on him. He’s at least a good consideration for matchups.

Lastly, for a long shot look, Emiliano Grillo is +11000. Grillo would have missed the cut last year anyway, but was disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard. He’s in much better form this year with an 11th last week and another top-25 finish a few weeks ago. He’s played well here for the most part. He’s got that big, balloon number and is 13th in SG: OTT and fifth in GIR%. He’ll have to roll the rock better than he has, but everything else lines up.

Golf Channel and NBC will have your coverage throughout the week.

GET A 100% DEPOSIT MATCH BONUS + A FREE FUTURES BET AT MYBOOKIE SPORTSBOOK

ODDS FOR THE 2021 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL FROM MYBOOKIE

RORY MCILROY +1000
VIKTOR HOVLAND +1200
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU +1200
TYRRELL HATTON +1600
PATRICK REED +2000
SUNGJAE IM +2000
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK +2500
PAUL CASEY +2800
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA +2800
JORDAN SPIETH +3000
JASON DAY +3500
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN +3500
FRANCESCO MOLINARI +3500
BILLY HORSCHEL +4000
TOMMY FLEETWOOD +4000
MARC LEISHMAN +4500
MAX HOMA +4500
SAM BURNS +5000
WILL ZALATORIS +5000
HARRIS ENGLISH +5500
JASON KOKRAK +5500
KEVIN NA +6000
JUSTIN ROSE +6600
CAMERON TRINGALE +7000
RICKIE FOWLER +7000
CAMERON DAVIS +7500
KEVIN KISNER +8000
BRANDEN GRACE +8000
CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT +8000
TALOR GOOCH +8000
LANTO GRIFFIN +9000
CHARLEY HOFFMAN +9000
SHANE LOWRY +10000
ADAM HADWIN +10000
SI WOO KIM +10000
MATT JONES +11000
VICTOR PEREZ +11000
MAVERICK MCNEALY +11000
IAN POULTER +11000
ROBERT MACINTYRE +11000
EMILIANO GRILLO +11000
ANDREW PUTNAM +11000
BRENDON TODD +11000
CHRIS KIRK +11000
LUKE LIST +11000
COREY CONNERS +11000
MATT WALLACE +12500
ALEX NOREN +12500
WYNDHAM CLARK +12500
LEE WESTWOOD +12500
BYEONG HUN AN +12500
JT POSTON +12500
BRENDAN STEELE +12500
JOEL DAHMEN +12500
DANNY WILLETT +12500
PATTON KIZZIRE +12500
ZACH JOHNSON +12500
MATTHEW NESMITH +12500
KEITH MITCHELL +14000
HENRIK STENSON +14000
KEEGAN BRADLEY +14000
HENRIK NORLANDER +14000
BERND WIESBERGER +14000
AARON WISE +14000
ERIK VAN ROOYEN +15000
PATRICK RODGERS +15000
SEBASTIAN MUNOZ +15000
KYLE STANLEY +15000
TOM HOGE +15000
STEVE STRICKER +15000
RORY SABBATINI +15000
CHARLES HOWELL III +16000
HAROLD VARNER III +16000
NICK TAYLOR +16000
RUSSELL KNOX +16000
DOUG GHIM +16000
CHEZ REAVIE +17500
JOHN HUH +17500
CAMERON CHAMP +17500
DYLAN FRITTELLI +17500
LUCAS GLOVER +17500
GRAEME MCDOWELL +17500
WILL GORDON +17500
DOC REDMAN +20000
CAMERON PERCY +20000
PETER MALNATI +20000
SEPP STRAKA +20000
SUNG KANG +20000
ADAM LONG +20000
ROBBY SHELTON +20000
BO HOAG +20000
BRANDT SNEDEKER +22500
MARTIN LAIRD +22500
KYOUNG-HOON LEE +22500
CHARL SCHWARTZEL +22500
HUDSON SWAFFORD +22500
KRAMER HICKOK +22500
RICHY WERENSKI +25000
CT PAN +25000
JASON DUFNER +27500
AUSTIN COOK +30000
BRIAN STUARD +30000
DANNY LEE +30000
KRISTOFFER VENTURA +30000
BRIAN GAY +30000
MARK HUBBARD +30000
ANIRBAN LAHIRI +30000
TYLER MCCUMBER +30000
JAZZ JANEWATTANANOND +30000
DENNY MCCARTHY +35000
PADRAIG HARRINGTON +35000
TYLER DUNCAN +35000
MATT EVERY +40000
JIM HERMAN +40000
ROBERT STREB +40000
CAMILO VILLEGAS +40000
MATTHIAS SCHMID +50000
JOHN AUGENSTEIN +60000
TIM HERRON +150000
KAMAIU JOHNSON +200000
PAUL GOYDOS +200000
ROD PERRY +250000
ROBERT GAMEZ +400000

 

Related Stories

Stay on op - Ge the daily news in your inbox