The Red Wolves and Dukes are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN. The Dukes will host the game at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. The over/under for this game is set at 153.5 points, and James Madison is favored by -5.5 vs. Arkansas State in a Sun Belt conference matchup.

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES VS JAMES MADISON DUKES BETTING PICK

The Pick: James Madison Dukes -5.5

This game will be played at Pensacola Bay Center at 7:00 ET on Monday, March 11th.

WHY BET THE JAMES MADISON DUKES:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 78-67 in favor of the Dukes.
  • Not only will James Madison pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 153.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Will Arkansas State Shock Everyone at Pensacola Bay Center?

Arkansas State heads into this game as the underdog, as they have been in 14 of their 33 games this season. They have gone 4-10 in those games, and are 18-15 overall.

On the road, the Red Wolves are 8-12, and they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is -3.4 points per game.

As the underdog this season, Arkansas State has an ATS record of 8-5-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Red Wolves have gone 7-2-1 vs. the spread. On the road, Arkansas State has an ATS mark of 11-8-1 this year and they are 5-4-1 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Arkansas State games is 14-19-1, and today’s over/under line of 153.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this season (153.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 140 points, and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 2-8.

Coming off their recent game, the Arkansas State offense tallied 67 points in a matchup against Appalachian State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 44.1%, and they made 5 threes. Taryn Todd is leading the team in scoring at 12.7 points per contest. Caleb Fields has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 12.2 going into the game.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, Arkansas State is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 76.7 points per game (290th). In today’s game, the Arkansas State defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 4 three-pointers while giving up 65 points.

Does James Madison Have a Shot at a Home Win?

James Madison has been dominant at home this season, going 15-1 and outscoring opponents by an average of 17.2 points per game. They have won nine straight games at home and have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games at home.

Overall, the Dukes have gone 30-3 this season, including a 12-0 record in non-conference games. They are currently riding a 12-game winning streak and have gone 18-3 in Sun Belt Conference games.

James Madison’s ATS record this season is 18-14, and they are 16-13 vs. the spread when favored. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Dukes are just 4-6 ATS.

This season, the over/under record for James Madison games is 15-16-1 and today’s line of 153.5 is similar to the average over/under line of 152.8 in their games. So far, 18 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 149 points.

Coming off their recent game, the James Madison offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Texas State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 39.7%, and they made 10 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Noah Freidel with 28 points. Xavier Brown also added 11 points for the Dukes.

At this time, the Dukes’ defense is positioned 92nd in the country, permitting 69.1 points per game. In their previous game vs. Texas State, the Bobcats finished with a field goal percentage of 39% and a total of 68 points vs. James Madison.