A couple of schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Blake Anderson and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (-13) are gearing up to take on their SBC rival South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The matchup will get going at 5:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ has the TV rights.
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama Betting Odds 11/29/2019
Arkansas State is giving up 13 points in this SBC game. The Red Wolves are currently getting -550 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +375. The over/under is set at 57 points. If one program finds paydirt early, it will likely create a nice live betting opportunity.
Square bettors are hammering the Red Wolves, as the opening line was 12. The game’s total hasn’t moved after it was initially set at 57.
The Red Wolves are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 1-10 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play. The Red Wolves have gained 2.4 units so far and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 6-5.
The Jaguars are down 6.0 units this season. They’re 6-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-8.
Arkansas State enters this contest on a zero-game losing streak while South Alabama has won each of its last zero. The Red Wolves are coming off a 38-33 victory over Georgia Southern last weekTheir defense allowed the Eagles to rush for 299 yards on 50 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Shai Werts shredded the defense in that one with 158 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. Offensively, Layne Hatcher completed 19 passes on 24 attempts for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Marcel Murray (just 37 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Jamal Jones (74 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Jonathan Adams Jr. (seven receptions, 158 yards, two TDs) and Omar Bayless (seven catches, 113 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
South Alabama just dropped a 28-15 game to Georgia State. The defense let the Panthers eat up the clock by running for 176 yards on 48 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Tra Barnett had a productive outing, posting 128 rushing yards and a score on 23 attempts for Georgia State. For South Alabama, Desmond Trotter completed 12-of-25 passes for 218 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tra Minter (70 rushing yards on 18 attempts) and the signal-caller Trotter (37 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the defeat as Brandon Crum (three receptions, 51 yards) and Kawaan Baker (three catches, 56 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Arkansas State has run the ball on 50.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Alabama has an overall rush percentage of 64.8 percent. The Red Wolves have produced 130 rush yards per game (including 138 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 12 scores via handoffs this year. The Jags are averaging 167 rush yards per contest (163 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
The Red Wolves have averaged 303 yards through the air overall (313 per game against conference opposition) and have 31 passing scores so far. The Jags have produced 148 pass yards per outing (148.7 against SBC competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Arkansas State has allowed 223 rush yards and 257 pass yards per game. South Alabama has been a bit better than that, allowing 201.0 yards per game on the ground and 205.2 to opponents in the air. The Red Wolves are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.32 to opponents, while the Jags have given up a 7.21 ANY/A.
Hatcher has amassed 1,914 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 130-of-186 attempts with 18 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Hatcher’s got a pristine 8.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.49 over the last two outings.
We expect Hatcher to attack all areas of the South Alabama secondary. Jonathan Adams Jr. (572 receiving yards and four touchdowns), Omar Bayless (1,281 yards, 14 TDs) and Kirk Merritt (572 yards, nine TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.
Desmond Trotter has put up 425 yards, four TDs and one INT for South Alabama. His ANY/A stands at 7.40 for the season and 6.80 over his past two games.
We’re looking for Jags to maintain the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Desmond Trotter (zero receiving yards) has contributed lately, but Tra Minter (814 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Carlos Davis (133 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant factors in the South Alabama offense.
When these two schools met a year ago, Arkansas State won easily 38-14.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. South Alabama Jaguars NCAA Tip
SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Under
South Alabama has lost 10 fumbles this season while Arkansas State has lost nine.
The Arkansas State defense has 25 sacks on the year while South Alabama has just 14.
Arkansas State has produced 3.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its last two.
South Alabama has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.2 over its past two.
In its last three games, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Arkansas State’s previous game was set at 52.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-33 triumph over Georgia Southern.
Over its last three contests, Arkansas State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for South Alabama’s previous match was set at 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-15 loss to Georgia State.