The Razorbacks and Bulldogs are set to face off at 2:00 ET on ESPNU. The Bulldogs will host the game at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, MS. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 145.5 points, and Mississippi State is favored by -12 to win at home against Arkansas.


The Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks +12

This game will be played at Humphrey Coliseum at 2:00 ET on Saturday, February 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Bulldogs.
  • Even though we have Mississippi State winning straight-up, we like Arkansas at +12.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 145.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Will the Razorbacks Find a Way to Win on the Road?

Arkansas is 12-12 overall and 3-8 in Southeastern Conference play. The Razorbacks are 1-7 on the road this season, with an average scoring margin of -12.6 points per game.

As the underdog, Arkansas is 3-10 this season. The Razorbacks’ last game was a 92-63 loss to Tennessee, and they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.

Arkansas has struggled against the spread this season, going just 7-17. Their road ATS mark is 1-7 and they are 4-9 vs. the spread as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Razorbacks are just 3-7 vs. the spread.

The over/under record for Arkansas games this year is 17-7, and today’s line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (150.5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 158 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 6-4.

Arkansas offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 63 points against Tennessee. In that game, they made 8/23 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 37.9%. Tramon Mark is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 17.4 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Khalif Battle brings a PPG average of 10.1 into the game.

At this time, the Razorbacks’ defense is positioned 301st in the country, permitting 78.4 points per game. Against Tennessee in their most recent game, the Arkansas defense gave up a total of 92 points while allowing Tennessee to hit 37% of their shots.

Will the Mississippi State Defense Show Up at Home?

Mississippi State has been a much better team at home this season, going 11-2 compared to 5-6 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +11.0, compared to just +2.0 on the road. The Bulldogs come into this game on a two-game winning streak, and they have gone 14-4 as the favorite this season.

Most recently, Mississippi State defeated Missouri by a score of 75-51. Over their last three games at home, they are a perfect 3-0. For the season, they are 16-8, including a 5-6 mark in Southeastern Conference play.

At home this season, Mississippi State has an ATS record of 7-5-1. Over their last 3 home games, the Bulldogs have gone 2-0-1 vs. the spread. As the favorite this year, Mississippi State is 10-7-1 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 145.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Mississippi State’s games this season (140.2). So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 142 points.

The Mississippi State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 75 points vs. Missouri. Overall their field goal percentage was 47.5% while connecting on 9 threes. In terms of offense, the Bulldogs have a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, putting them 194th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 334th in percentage and 198th in three-pointers made.

The Bulldogs’ defense is presently ranked 65th nationally, allowing an average of 67.4 points per contest. So far, the Mississippi State defense is giving up an average of 8.3 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.4 times per game (630th).