Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick 09/21/19

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Ketel Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks will be taking on their divisional nemesis San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona will be televising the matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Odds

Arizona (-120) is entering this game as the favorite over San Diego (+110) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (+105 for the over and -125 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Diamondbacks -1.5 (+125) and Padres +1.5 (-145).

The Diamondbacks have gone 79-75 SU this year and are 85-68 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.4 units for moneyline bettors and 11.0 units ATS. The Padres, on the other hand, are 69-85 SU and 71-82 ATS. The team’s lost 18.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 20.1 units ATS.

San Diego games have an over/under record of 72-73-8 in 2019. Arizona has an over/under record of 69-72-12.

Luke Weaver will get the nod for the visiting Diamondbacks. The right-handed Weaver is 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA and 68 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with 15 strikeouts and a 2.92 ERA against San Diego this year (two starts).

The Padres will put the ball in the hands of Cal Quantrill (6-8, 5.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who’s got 83 strikeouts and 28 walks. Quantrill is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 14.40 ERA in one start against Arizona this year.

As a unit, San Diego’s pitching staff has given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 68 games against NL West foes, Padres starters have an ERA of 5.30 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.25.

The San Diego offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.4 per game against divisional foes and 1.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .145/.212/.217 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have led the way for the Padres’ batters this year. Hosmer is hitting .273/.320/.435 with 21 home runs, 96 RBIs and 71 runs scored, while Machado’s line is .251/.330/.453 with 30 homers, 82 RBIs and 79 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Arizona’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.65 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.43, along with a WHIP of 1.28.

The Diamondbacks offense has slashed .254/.326/.438 on its way to 5.0 runs scored per game this year, including 5.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Arizona’s offensive production has been fueled by Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar, who collectively have swatted 67 home runs. Marte is slashing .329/.389/.592 with 32 home runs, 92 RBIs and 97 runs scored, while Escobar is hitting .270/.321/.523 with 35 homers, 115 RBIs and 94 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 12.3 units and are 54-67 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 59 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve hit the under against righty starters.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Free Prediction

Predictions:SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

The under has cashed in four of San Diego’s last seven games.

The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games SU.

San Diego has posted 15.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 9.8 over its last five.

The Diamondbacks have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.

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